MLB Plays & Stats from CheatSheetPros!
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TOP TEAM STACKS / PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST:
NYM vs. Aaron Nola – I think most of the industry is going to see Nola and not consider stacking the NYM. These guys are hot as you can see from the hot hitters listed below Alonzo, Conforto and Nimmo are popping up on the value chart and mashing right now. Nola was a rockstar last year and he is just off to a slow start so hold him if you own him in a season long league. Now this year he has been smashed by LHH giving up a 4.94 xFIP and a low 6.8 K9 ratio which is down from is 11.8 K9 he held vs. LHH last year. He also has a 1.65 whip vs. LHH. So if you are stacking NYM then build around the lefties. You can look at Nimmo who is only $3,600 and on a tear right now putting up 26, 4, 11 and 23 point games, Robinson Cano only $3,500, Michael Conforto is at $4,500 but holds a .491 wOBA vs. pitcher handedness with an .844 OBiso which is the highest in the NYM lineup and averages 10.9 FPPG. Jeff McNeil is also a lefty with a .388 wOBA averaging 8.2 FPPG at $3,900. This stack is CHEAP AS FK! Peter Alonzo is mashing everyone right now and priced at $4,800 you can easily fit him into this stack because everyone else is cheap!
STL vs. Peralta – So Peralta had a nice 42.8 point start vs. a terrible CIN team but then his other two starts were -1.25 and -1.9 points vs. STL and @ LAA. Vs. STL he was at home and only lasted 3.0 innings and gave up 4 ERs, 3 BB and only 3 Ks. 6 of the 8 actuall hitters in the projected starting lineup have a wOBA over .340 vs. pitcher handed. They are all priced very reasonable too. Wong $4,000 – 10.6 fppg with a .448 wOBA and .819 OBiso, Ozuna at $4,000 with a .397 wOBA and .730 OBiso and just shy of 10 fppg, DeJong is $4,400 with a .387 wOBA and 10.5 fppg and even Paul Goldschmidt is only $4,300 with a .368 wOBa and 9.5 fppg. On our daily stack sheet they pop as the highest value of 2.42.
My Kansas City Royals vs. Ervin Santana – Anyone who has been with me the last two years knows that I live in KC and follow the Royals/Chiefs, etc. KC comes in as a 2.27 value stack and I recommend only stacking teams with a 2.1 or higher. KC is expensive on the top end but you can mix in some lower end guys and lighten the pricing load. The top 3 guys: Whit .378 wOBA and 11.3 fppg, Mondesi .350 wOBA and 11.5 fppg, Alex Gordon .423 wOBA at 11.2 fppg are all averaging double digit fantasy points. Mondesi is a nose bleeding $5,100! Can you believe that? He is $800 more than Paul Goldschmidt? WTF DK! I’m fine leaving him out of the stack if you need to save money and running the Whit/Alex Gordon and down through Soler (4200), O’Hearn (3700) and Dozier (3600).
FAVORITE ONE-OFF HITTERS:
Brian Anderson - $2,900 – Dirt cheap and has been on fire as of late. Facing Darvish he has been all over the place. He is coming off 25 and 21 point games.
Heyward/Rizzo (if game plays) – I like Trevor Richards but he struggles vs. LHH and these two guys are mashers. Rizzo only (4200) and averaging 8.6 fppg and Heyward is only (4300) and averaging 12.9 fppg and holds an eye popping .506 wOBA and .906 OBiso!
PITCHERS TALK AND BREAKDOWN:
Wow this is a shit show for starting pitching and value. I think today you have to pick a mid-tier pitcher and pair him with a stud. The studs are your Syndergaard / Bauer and possibly Nola.
SYNDERGAARD – Priced at $10k on DK that seems fair since they priced up Joey Lucchesi at $9,000 and a struggling Aaron Nola at $9,600. He has a tough matchup vs. PHI but he will get the Ks to rack up some points giving you a solid floor. He has put up 14.7, 19.7 and 22.75 DK points in his last 3 starts.
NOLA – I’m likely going to be off Nola tonight due to the hot hitting NYM. While doing my “Hot Hitters” NYM were popping up like Midwest mushrooms with Peter Alonzo, Conforto and Nimmo just to name a few. Nola started off hot with a 27.3 point outing vs. ATL going 6.0 innings for 8Ks but then hit a wall. In his last two starts he has -5.45 DK points vs. WASH where he only lasted 3.0 innings an d then 7.45 DK points (again vs WASH but this time at home) where he went 6.1 but only managed 3 Ks. Fade for me at this price tag!
SHOEMAKER – He is my favorite pitcher on the slate right now for his price point. He is sitting at $8,000 on DK and has “positive” outings in all 3 starts this year which is a rarity for most of these guys. His first 3 starts were 31.3 DK points vs. DET going 7 innings with 7 Ks and 0 ER, then 33.3 DK points vs. BAL going 7 innings with 8 Ks and 0 ER. Then his most recent start was 16.55 DK points @ BOS going 5.2 with 4 Ks and 2 ER. Now he is facing Perez who has been awful so Shoemaker should be in line for an easy win if he can go the distance.
LUIS CASTILLO – Here is your GPP pitcher. He is coming off 23.75, 28 and 33.95 DK point outings and now he gets a solid LAD team to put him to the test. His first 3 starts vs. PIT, MIL and MIA aren’t the best indicators as all of those teams are shit but he did manage 8, 9 and 8 Ks in those 3 starts. I’d much rather fire up a Castillo over Lucchesi since the industry is on Joey L. GPP play for sure to see if he is dominant. LAD have the highest custom power ranking at CheatSheetPros right now. They hold a team batting average of .284, low 18.6% strikeout rate and average 6.4 runs per game with 35 HRs on the year already and over 300 total bases!
TREVOR BAUER – Priced up at $10,400 he has a tough matchup vs. a red hot Seattle team. He has put up 30, 31.5 and 12 DK point outings in his last 3 contents. He also put up 9, 8 and 7Ks in those 3 games giving us a good floor. I definitely think he is viable tonight even though he is in a tough spot.
JOEY LUCCHESI – Industry is all over him as he is projected as the top value pitcher on several sites this am. He put up nice 27 and 24 point outings in his first two and then went to SFG against a terrible Giants team and got hammered for 7 runs in only 4 innings. COL ranks as the worst team on the road in our custom power rankings as they hold a team batting average of only .201 with a 26.4% strikeout rate and average a whopping 2.9 runs per game. He is viable but I’m off him as there are other places I want to plant my flag.
YU DARVISH – Love this guy but have to fade him right now. He is all over the place. His last 3 starts were good for 2.6, 1.6 and 8.4 DK points. Strikeout numbers are way down, walks are way up. Fade for now.
TREVOR RICHARDS – Don’t mind him at $8,200 if you want to pivot off Shoemaker. He is coming off 16, 16.7 and 24 point starts. He went 6.0 innings in all 3 starts and put up 7, 7 and 4 Ks and only 0, 3 and 1 ER. Facing the Cubs and Darvish has been terrible if they can get some offense he could pick up the win which would be huge. But again no faith in Miami offense.
TREVOR CAHILL – I was looking at him as a pickup this week in season long so I don’t mind using him either as he is priced down to $7,100 on DK and has 19.7 and 25.3 DK points starts in his last two. Those two starts were tough vs. Seattle @ SEA going 6.0 innings with 5 Ks and only 1 ER. That’s pretty impressive considering the team he was facing and how red hot they are right now! Now he is facing a TEX team that holds a .241 batting average with a high 26.7% strikeout rate and average 5.1 runs per game. He could have a 3x+ game tonight, he will definitely be in my player pool!
DAKOTA HUDSON – This is the ultimate GPP play priced at only $6,200 on DK. Yes his control and command is all over the place and he can walk guys like crazy but I think he could return solid value if things click for him. He is going to get a massive start and we want to have a piece of it when he does. Now I’m not saying “lock him in” but if you are doing 20 lines then put him in 2-3 with your favorite stacks because he is super cheap! Now his last outing he faced the LAD and lasted 4.2 innings with 0 ERs and 4 Ks, that is great, however he did manage to walk 4 batters. He went 4.1 vs. MIL and gave up 3 ER, 2 BB and 6 Ks. So he has some K upside and he could last longer if he can get his pitch count under control.
PITCHER RECAP – So my breakdown I love using Shoemaker, Trevor Richards and Trevor Cahill tonight for my mid-tier pitchers. I like mixing in some Dakota Hudson and Castillo for GPPs. I like Syndergaard and Bauer for anchors if you can afford them.
AN EXAMPLE DOUBLE STACK LINEUP FOR CASH GAMES I AM LOOKING AT:
HOT HITTERS: (Hitters with the highest value over the last 10 days using DK salaries!)
1. Mitch Garver (MIN: C) – His last 4 games he has 14, 19, 36 and 19 DK points!
2. Dan Vogelbach (SEA: 1B) – 17.3 DK PPG over L10 days good for 4x value! He has put up 6, 16, 2, 15, 22 and 43 points over his last 6 games.
3. Peter Alonzo (NYM: 1B) – 19.0 DK PPG over L10 days good for 3.9x value! He has put up 9, 21, 8, 30, 27 and 19 over his last 6 games.
4. Michael Conforto (NYM: OF) – 16.1 DK PPG over L10 days for 3.6x value. Coming off 7, 14, 6, 11, 27, 27 and 21 point runs!
5. Brandon Nimmo (NYM: OF) – 12.8 DK PPG good for 3.6x value while coming off 26, 4, 11 and 23 point games!
OTHER NOTABLE HITTERS: Jesse Winker is finally catching some fire with a 4 game run of 14, 11, 16 and 23 DK points and only priced at $3,400. Grab him in season long leagues as he was dropped all over the place! Mitch Haniger has been solid but is starting to get hot coming off a 4 game run of 14, 12, 21 and 18 DK points!
BVP MONSTERS: (Hitters with at least 10 Abs with solid BVP numbers vs. current pitcher!)
1. Justin Smoak - .438 avg / .503 wOBA / 7 for 16.
2. Shin-Soo Choo - .400 avg / .450 wOBA / 6 for 15.
3. Cesar Hernandez - .400 avg / .391 wOBA / 8 for 20.
4. Nelson Cruz - .308 avg / .370 wOBA / 8 for 26 with 2 HRs.
5. Bryce Harper - .286 avg / .333 wOBA / 6 for 21.
6. Whit Merrifield - .357 avg / .333 wOBA / 5 for 14 only 1 K.
LAST BUT NOT LEAST - CONGRATS ON ANOTHER MEMBER TAKING DOWN A GPP FROM OUR 'MASTERS' GOLF SHEET!
Thank you for reading and good luck!
Haze
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