Hello, everyone!! bathrobeDFS is here with your Daily MLB Analysis. First, I will go over any weather concerns. Then, we will take a look at the Vegas lines. Next, I will take a look at Pitchers. Then I will look at the Hitters. All of this will be discussed as someone who plays on DraftKings.
Early Slate
Game Notes (SPs, Vegas Lines, Weather)
Indians vs Tigers - 110pm
Trevor Bauer, RHP - 1-0, 14.0 IP, 0.64 ERA, 0.57 WHIP, 7 BB, 17 K
Matthew Boyd, LHP - 0-1, 11.3 IP, 3.18 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 4 BB, 23 K
Vegas Info: 7.5, CLE -139
Weather: Mostly Cloudy and Cool. Temps in the Mid 40s. Winds blowing out to RF at 10mph.
Rays vs White Sox - 210pm
Tyler Glasnow, RHP - 2-0, 11.0 IP, 0.82 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 2 BB, 10 K
Reynaldo Lopez, RHP - 0-1, 9.0 IP, 10.00 ERA, 2.22 WHIP, 8 BB, 7 K
Vegas Info: 8, TB -146
Weather: RAIN. Near Freezing. Temps in the mid 30s. Winds blowing in at 12 mph. This game shouldn’t play. If it does, huge boost to SPs.
Braves vs. Rockies
Kevin Gausman, RHP - 1-0, 7.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.57 WHIP, 2 BB, 7 K
Jeff Hoffman, RHP - FIRST START
Vegas Info:
Weather: RAIN. Cold and getting colder. Temps in the high 30s by the end of the game. Winds blowing IN at 20 mph. Huge boost to pitchers.
Padres vs Giants
Nick Margevicius, LHP - 0-1, 10.0 IP, 1.80 ERA, 0.50 WHIP, 1 BB, 6 K
Dereck Rodriguez, RHP - 1-1, 10.1 IP, 5.23 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 0 BB, 7 K
Vegas Info: 7.5, Pick Em
Weather: Clear and Warm. Temps in the mid 60s. Winds blowing out at 11mph, but that doesn’t matter in SF
Weather Games
There are two games here I really don’t think will play. If TB/CHW goes off, I will have a lot of interest in Glasnow and Tampa bats. You can start at the top with TB and work your way down. But the rain isn’t going to stop. Speaking of which, the COL game is going to start in rain and, by night, it will be snowing. This isn’t something that’s going to get better as the day progresses, so waiting isn’t going to help. And even if these games play, it will be in the 30s. There’s just no reason to play these out, especially since they can find another day to play later in the season.
Pitchers
Great Pitchers
Trevor Bauer (11000, RHP) at DET - Bauer is a pitcher you can play any time he pitches. He is going to be in the running for the Cy Young this year and the Tigers are a bad team that won’t stop him. Do not fade him here. Or, if you do, understand you’re probably going to lose money.
Matt Boyd (8700, LHP) vs CLE - Boyd is a lot better a pitcher than people realize. He has started out the year well, though, so maybe people will be on him soon. He is a young kid who had a lot of promise and has shown it this season. He has had 2 starts so far, against the Blue Jays and Yankees, and he has gone 5 IP and 6.1 IP, striking out 10 and 13. If he can get anywhere near there against a much worse CLE offense, he is going to be one of the best plays on this small slate.
Great Spots
Nick Margevicius (7300, LHP) at SF - I have a general plan to pitch people against the Giants, especially when they are cheap, and there’s very few other options. He had one start against the Giants already. He got 5 IP and struck out 5, walked 0 and gave up 3 hits and 1 ER. Good for 16.3 DKP. In his second start, they pulled him after 54 pitches for some reason, but he still got 5 IP out of that, allowing only 1 hit, a HR, and 1 walk against a tougher Cards team. On this slate, for that price, I would take that. I would even expect more, since he should be able to get more towards 100 pitches today.
Batters
Stacking Opportunities (in no particular order)
Padres vs Dereck Rodriguez (RHP, @SF) - While this isn’t a stack I would normally take on a large slate, I only expect 2 of these games to really play. Considering I like the other 3 pitchers, and Rodriguez is the worst of them, I will, by default, wind up stacking the Padres and then finding a couple other bats elsewhere.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 7
Chalk Level (1-10): 8
Preferred Stack: Full
Preferred Players: Start at the top and work your way down.
One-Off Batters
Giants RHB - So, if you are not playing Margevicius, you can do a mini stack of these Giants RHB, or you can play them as one-offs. I would prioritize Austin (1B - 4100) followed by Posey (C/1B - 3700) and Longoria (3B - 3500). The bats in this game are cheap enough that you could play Bauer and Boyd and then fill in with just these guys, in the case that both of the middle games do indeed rain out.
HR CALL OF THE SLATE: I don’t really love anyone. My favorite play would be Eric Hosmer
Main Slate
Game Notes (SPs, Vegas Lines, Weather)
A’s vs Orioles - 705pm
Frankie Montas, RHP - 1-1, 11.0 IP, 2.45 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 3 BB, 11 K
Dan Straily, RHP - 0-0, 1.1 IP, 33.75 ERA, 5.25 WHIP, 2 BB, 0 K
Vegas Info: 9.5
Weather: Partly Cloudy and Warmish. Temps falling into the upper 50s. Winds blowing in at 6mph
Nats vs Phillies - 705pm
Jeremy Hellickson, RHP - 0-0, 2.0 IP, 9.00 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 0 BB, 0 K
Nick Pivetta, RHP - 1-0, 9.2 IP, 6.52 WHIP, 1.97 WHIP, 2 BB, 8 K
Vegas Info:
Weather: Partly Cloudy and Cool. Temps in the mid 50s. Winds blowing in at 8mph
Twins vs Mets - 710pm
Jake Odorizzi, RHP - 0-1, 6.2 IP, 6.75 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 5 BB, 12 K
Noah Syndergaard, RHP - 0-1, 12.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 2 BB, 13 K
Vegas Info:
Weather: Clear and Cool. Temps in the mid 50s. Winds blowing in at 10mph. Boost to SP.
Yankees vs Astros - 740pm
James Paxton, LHP - 1-1, 11.0 IP, 4.09 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 3 BB, 14 K
Collin McHugh, RHP - 1-1, 11.0 IP, 2.45 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 4 BB, 13 K
Vegas Info:
Weather: DOME
Dodgers vs Cardinals - 745pm
Kenta Maeda, RHP - 2-0, 11.2 IP, 3.09 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 6 BB, 10 K
Jack Flaherty, RHP - 0-0, 9.1 IP, 3.86 ERA, 1.71 WHIP, 3 BB, 10 K
Vegas Info:
Weather: Mostly Cloudy and Warm. Temps in the mid 70s. Winds blowing across the field at 15 mph.
Pirates vs Cubs - 805pm
Jordan Lyles, RHP - 0-0, 5.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 3 BB, 2 K
Yu Darvish, RHP - 0-1, 6.2 IP, 8.10 ERA, 2.70 WHIP, 11 B, 6 K
Vegas Info:
Weather: CHANCE OF RAIN - Overcast and Cold. Temps in the upper 30s. Winds howling in at 17mph. Huge boost to SP.
Mariners vs Royals - 815pm
Yusei Kukuchi - 0-0, 15.2 IP, 4.02 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 2 BB, 12 K
Heath Fillmeyer, RHP - FIRST START
Vegas Info:
Weather: Overcast and Warm. Very Windy. Temps in the high 70s. Winds blowing Out to LF at 18mph. Big boost to Bats.
Rangers vs Dbacks - 940pm
Lance Lynn, RHP - 0-1, 12.2 IP, 6.39 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 1 BB, 10 K
Robbie Ray, LHP - 0-1, 10.1 IP, 4.35 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 10 BB, 12 K
Vegas Info:
Weather: DOME
Brewers vs Angels - 1007pm
Brandon Woodruff, RHP - 1-0, 9.0 IP, 6.00 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 3 BB, 13 K
Felix Pena, RHP - 0-1, 8.1 IP, 5.40 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 3 BB, 10 K
Vegas Info:
Weather: Clear and Warm. Temps around 70. Winds blowing out to RF at 8mph.
Pitchers
Great Pitchers
Noah Syndergaard (10400, RHP) vs MIN - Syndergaard is still my pick to win the NL Cy Young this year. Even though the Twins put the hurting on the reigning Cy Young winner. Thor has had 2 starts against a tougher Nats lineup. I expect him to be able to do what the Mets staff couldn’t do yesterday and shut the Twins down. Especially at way, way too cheap a price for his upside.
Robbie Ray (9400, LHP) vs TEX - The Rangers are one of the most lefty dominant lineups in the bigs. Almost, if not all, of their major damage dealers are LHB. So Robbie Ray should be licking his chops here. While he hasn’t had one of those Robbie Ray 14 K 30 DKP performances yet this year, I wouldn't be at all surprised if this is the one. The Rangers lineup vs. LHP is bad. And Ray is going to swim in Ks.
Great Pitchers, Bad Spots
James Paxton (9700, LHP) at HOU - Oh man, neither of these dudes is Verlander. I love both of them, but these are 2 offenses I wouldn’t want to go against. That being said, Paxton is an incredible pitcher, who shows extreme reverse splits. Given the lack of LHB in the Houston lineup, this might actually set up better than we expect for Paxton. I would definitely have some shares of him. He is a great pitcher in every aspect, including getting a ton of strikeouts. While this Astros team is hard to strikeout, he is one of those pitchers with the skillset to get it done. Still, this isn’t a safe bet by any means. I would definitely go here in GPPs though.
Collin McHugh (8800, NYY) vs NYY - Like I said, neither of these dudes is Verlander. I love McHugh as well, especially since he was a Mets farmhand and I remember him from those days. He has been doing well with strikeouts this year, and keeping runners off base. But, again, this is a Yankees team that is probably the best offense in baseball. Well, they would be if everyone was healthy. Now they are one of them. Either way, I don’t want to go here, except in GPP. The Yanks have plenty of strikeouts available and it’s certainly possible for McHugh to rack up 10k here in 5-6 IP.
Great Spots
Frankie Montas (8100, RHP) at BAL - Montas is in the enviable spot of “Dude going against the Orioles.” He’s had a good start and a decent start so far. If he can pitch like he did against the Angels last week, going 6 IP with 6 K, 3 H, 1 ER and 0 BB he would more than pay off his salary. And the O’s aren’t nearly as imposing as the Angels. Mike Trout is better than the entire O’s team put together. I’m sure that he could, like Bugs Bunny, manage to play every position and beat them single handedly. Anyway, I digress - even against an impossible Astros team that doesn’t strike out, Montas had 5 K in 5 IP. He also only allowed 2 ER, though the 7 hits and 3 BB means he was able to work out of trouble. But he is going to get up past 100 pitches today, if need be. And he will get a bunch of Ks against the O’s. And I have to imagine people won’t be on him.
GPP Plays
Jordan Lyles (6800, RHP) at CHC - While I don’t expect Lyles to absolutely demolish the Cubs, and, by putting him here I acknowledge you can readily stack against him, I am going to take a look at the weather here and use that as a determining factor. Lyles isn’t a great pitcher, but he has been around long enough now to know what he’s doing. And, while he’s never been great, he has been a lot better since he got out of COL. He managed to have almost a 9 K/9 last season, and some of the best numbers of his career. When it’s that cold and the wind is blowing in that strong, with the chance of light rain on top of it, I don’t know how you don’t take a chance when a HR will be superhuman. Wrigley is one of those parks the wind REALLY factors in. And if the wind is blowing in that much, get away.
Brandon Woodruff (8300, RHP) at LAA - The best time to take a pitcher against the Angels is the day after Mike Trout strains his groin and he should be out of the lineup. Especially when that dude has a 10 K/9. I know that it’s going to be tough against any AL Lineup, and the Angels are still not a joke, but they are MUCH less imposing without Trout and Woodruff should be able to rack up strikeouts and limit damage. Plus, no one will be on him (especially at that price).
No Thanks
Kenta Maeda (10100, RHP) at STL - Maeda is a fine pitcher, and I expect to use him every once in awhile. But not at more than 10k, on the road, against a good Cardinals Offense. Especially when the Dodgers rarely let their starters get 100 pitches. Why pay that much in that situation when he could get pulled after 2 IP like Ryu?? Sorry, I’ll either find a couple hundred bucks for Thor or save some cash and go down.
Batters
Stacking Opportunities (in no particular order)
A’s vs Dan Straily (RHP, @BAL) - The original starter listed for today was Josh Rogers who is terrible. The O’s decided, instead, to go with Dan Straily who is even worse. He has 1.1 IP this season and he gave up 2 HR and 5 ER and it was fucking awful. If you didn’t, go look at his stats so far this year (just scroll up. I put them up there). Hey, if it’s any consolation, O’s fans, while Straily has a 33.75 ERA so far this year, his FIP is significantly lower - only 27.01. So at least he has that going for him
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10
Chalk Level (1-10): 7
Preferred Stack: Full
Preferred Players: Everyone. Start at the top of the order and take everyone you can, in order
Phillies vs Jeremy Hellickson (RHP, WAS) - Hellickson hasn’t gotten a start yet, because he isn’t good enough to have warranted one. The Nats decided to get by with 4 starters up until now, so Hellickson has only gotten into one game, against these Phillies, where he gave up 2 ER on 3 hits with 0 BB and 0 K in 2 IP. The Phillies are a fantastic offense playing in a bandbox. Odds are good Hellickson doesn’t it make it too far here. At least there’s cheesesteaks in the locker room.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8
Chalk Level (1-10): 8
Preferred Stack: Full
**Preferred Players: Start with Bryce (OF - 5200), Rhys (1B - 5300), and Realmuto (C - 4400), then go back to the top and work your way down. **
Nationals vs Nick Pivetta (RHP, @PHI) - Nick Pivetta should be 0-2 right now. He’s lucky he has gotten a crazy amount of run support because, if you have 9.2 IP and you’ve given up 7 ER on 17 hits and 2 walks, you are pitching horribly. The crazy thing is, given his opponent, it’s certainly possible he squeezes out another win because the Phils should be able to light Hellickson and that horrific Nats bullpen up as well.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8
Chalk Level (1-10): 7
Preferred Stack: Full
Preferred Players: Start at the top and work down.
Mets vs Jake Odorizzi (RHP, MIN) - Odorizzi had two starts that were about as different as they could have been. In his first start, against a shitty Indians O, he got 11 K in 6 IP. He allowed only 1 hit, a HR, which was the only run he allowed as well. In his next start, against a good Phillies O, he only lasted 0.2 IP, giving up 2 hits, 3 BB, and 4 ER before being pulled. Now he’s going against an underrated Mets team that should be able to make his job a lot tougher, even considering he has extreme reverse splits.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8
Chalk Level (1-10): 4
Preferred Stack: Full
Preferred Players: Alonso (1B - 4600), Davis (3B - 3800), Conforto (OF - 4300), Ramos (C - 3700), then go back to the top and work down. I told you Alonso would be at 5k within 2 weeks, didn’t I???
Dodgers vs Jack Flaherty (RHP, @STL) - Much like a lot of pitchers, Flaherty is hit or miss. We will use him sometimes and stack against him others depending on a bunch of factors. Today, against a Dodgers lineup that can really punish even a reverse-splits RHB, I will take the chance of the stack over the pitcher. We just have to remember that, as a reverse splits righty, we can find some extra advantage with RHB that also show reverse splits. The Dodgers have a couple (Pollock and Taylor) and you should lock them in first when making a stack.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 7
Chalk Level (1-10): 6
Preferred Stack: Full
**Preferred Players: Pollock (OF - 3500), Taylor (OF/SS - 3400), Turner (3B - 3800). Why are these guys so cheap?? Then go back to the top and work down. **
Pirates vs Yu Darvish (RHP, @CHC) - There are several reasons to like this play, regardless of how bad the weather is for hitters. First, Yu Darvish has looked AWFUL starting off the year. And that’s being really, really kind to Darvish. If he wasn’t previously successful and he had just come up, he would be 4500 right now based on how he has pitched. 11 walks so far in 6.2 IP??? That’s horrific. Second, the Pirates prices are low enough you can fit in 2 aces and still stack them without an issue. And, even if they just spray hits all day and get you 10 points without any HRs, that could be more than enough if the pitchers go off.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9
Chalk Level (1-10): 4
Preferred Stack: Full
Preferred Players: Frazier (2B - 3700), Marte (OF - 3800), Cervelli (C - 3300), Bell (1B - 3600), Kang (3B/SS - 3300), Melky (OF - 3000), Jason Martin (OF - 3400), Erik Gonzalez (SS - 2800). Seriously, that’s the projected starting lineup. Look at those numbers.
Mariners vs Heath Fillmyer (RHP, @KCR) - Just like the weather can make me not like the Cubs bats, the weather can make me like the bats in this game a lot more. I mean, against Fillmyer I would have liked the Mariners a ton, but given the wind is going to be blowing out to LF at 18mph all game this is going to be bad, bad game for the pitchers. Especially one making his season debut for the Royals after putting up a 4.75 and 1.34 WHIP last season in 13 starts. While it was a small sample size, he showed EXTREME reverse splits as well, allowing a .479 SLG to RHB and .325 SLG fo LHB. And, when the wind is blowing out to LF, guess which power bats have the big boost? RHB? Oh boy!
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10
Chalk Level (1-10): 10
Preferred Stack: Full - RHB preferred
Preferred Players: Edwin Encarnacion (1B - 5000) is the only reverse splits RHB the Mariners have, so lock him in first. Then get in Haniger (OF - 4300), Santana (OF - 4900), then go to the top and work down.
Royals vs Yusei Kikuchi (LHP, SEA) So I know Kikuchi is new and came over as one of the top pitchers in Japan. I also know that he has 3 starts, which is hardly enough sample size to make any sort of real analysis on him. What I can say is that Kikuchi has been absolute murder to LHB, but attackable by RHB. And I also know that the Royals have a couple of the best RHB vs LHP in the game. Also, the wind is blowing out at 18 mph to LF, which is a huge boost to RHB. This is going to be awesome. HOLY SHIT LOOK AT HOW CHEAP THE ROYALS BATS ARE!!!!!
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 10
Chalk Level (1-10): 7
Preferred Stack: Full - RHB Preferred
Preferred Players: Whit (2B/OF - 4500), Mondesi (SS - 4400), Soler (OF - 3600), Schwindel (1B - 3100), Dozier (1B/3B - 3000), Owings (2B/3B - 2900), Maldonado (C - 2600). Oh my god
Dbacks vs Lance Lynn (RHP, TEX) - At this point, the best you can expect from Lynn is mediocrity and we can assume that his normal is someone who shouldn’t be in the major leagues, if not for expansion. He gives up a ton of hits and HRs and doesn’t strike out enough people to get out of the constant trouble he finds himself in.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 8
Chalk Level (1-10): 8
Preferred Stack: Full - LHB preferred
Preferred Players: Peralta (OF - 4400), Escobar (3B/SS - 3800), Dyson (OF - 4100), Marte (2B/OF - 4400), then start at cleanup and work your way down
Brewers vs Felix Pena (RHP, @LAA) - Pena isn’t a very good pitcher. I mean, he’s not the worst. But he’s not great. And he has trouble against LHB, which the Brewers are filled with. And they get an extra one in an AL park, plus 9 full innings of ABs no matter what.
How much do I love this stack? (1-10): 9
Chalk Level (1-10): 8
Preferred Stack: Full - LHB preferred
Preferred Players: Yelich (OF - 5500), Shaw (1B/3B - 3700), Moustakas (2B/3B - 4000), Grandal (C - 3800), Thames (1B/OF - 4100), then go back to Cain and work your way down.
One-Off Batters
Dwight Smith, Jr. (OF - 3600) - While I don’t think we are going to get a HR here, I absolutely love Smith’s chances of getting past 10 DKP, something he’s already done 3 times this year. He may not be well known, but the kid isn’t a terrible hitter, and he can steal a base. Montas is an extreme splits pitcher and that lines up perfectly for Smith. If you need a cheap dude today, you could do a lot worse.
Matt Carpenter (3B - 4200) - Carpenter is a fantastic lead off LHB that you can play almost any time the Cards are going against a RHP. This goes doubly so when the RHP has extreme splits, and can get hit real, real hard by LHB. This is one of those spots Carpenter can get start the game off with a HR before adding another in the 3rd. Don’t miss that train just cause you don’t want the rest of the lineup or Maeda himself. You can also play Kolten Wong (2B - 3900) for the exact same reason. I just wish he was hitting higher in the order.
Edwin Encarnacion (1B - 5000) - Reverse splits RHB against extreme reverse splits RHP with the wind blowing out to RF at 18mph?? What is there not to like??? Even if you take no one else from this game, take EE.
HR CALL OF THE SLATE: Pete Alonso AND Encarnacion
Alright! That does it! Time to get going on the 11 gamer for the final day of regular season NBA.
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