Hello, everyone! bathrobeDFS here with your daily basketball article. First, I will breakdown my lineup for yesterday’s main slate. Then I will go over tonight’s slate from the perspective of a one lineup player on Draftkings. If you have any additional questions or want to see guaranteed updates in regards to breaking news- I provide additional updates, information, and stats on my twitter @bathrobeDFS. Feel free to throw me a follow cause it’s much easier and more timely to provide updates over that medium. It also should go without saying, this is just a preliminary analysis of the slate: everything can change throughout the day, so make sure you are staying on top of any and all injury news and change your lineups accordingly! I am always available to help with any questions there, as well, even if I can’t do a second article. Let’s get started with the Review!
Yesterday In Review:
***My Lineup-*** -
Name | Price | DKP | Value | Proj Own | Real Own | Diff
Kemba | 9300 | 51.75 | 5.6x | 16.3%| 19%| 2.7
Bazemore | 4200 | 24.25 | 5.8x | 20.1%| 33.5%| 13.4!!!
PG13 | 10800 | 71.25 | 5.6x | 23.5%| 21.3%| 2.1
O’Quinn | 3000 | 28.5 | 9.5x | 23.5%| 21.3%| 2.2
Sabonis | 5500 | 43.25 | 7.9x | 52.5%| 48%| 4.5
Burke | 3400 | 16 | 4.7x | 0.7%| 1.7%| 1
Saric | 4800 | 26.25 | 5.5x | 18%| 23.3%| 5.3
Griffin | 8900 | 23.5 | 2.6x | 18.1%| 29.1%| 11!!!
**Total** | 49900 | 284.75 | 5.7x| | |
Analysis-
Oh man. It’s good to be back to the normal thing. So my play of the day was Blake. He came out slow, started to heat up, and then got ejected. So that ruined the entirety of the slate for me and almost 30% of the field. Next came the injury plays- I got O’Quinn and Sabonis in for the missing Turner. I knew both would be popular, and I knew both could exceed value together. I figured a good way to separate myself would be to play them both. With KAT out, I had to choose between Taj and Saric. I went with Saric cause of ownership, his recent performance, and his matchup. I went with Burke cause of Doncic being out. I figured he would also get the blow out run when Denver crushes them. I went with Bazemore for Huerter being out. That left me a bunch of money. I had a ton of choices and I went with Kemba, who I loved, and PG13, who was underowned compared to Russ.
The Daily in NBA DFS:
Blazers vs Sixers Showdown
So, if you didn’t catch my post on twitter yesterday: Here You All Go. And Here is a Direct Link. This will give an explanation of some of the shorthand I use when I compile my notes. This way I can give you what I put together with a little less extra typing for me. If you have any questions, check the twitter thread first where I explain everything. Then feel free to hit me up.
O/U: 229.5, PHI -2
POR 18th PHI 10th (pace)
Turner O-?
Embiid O-3
POR - 218.8 DKPPG (24th) - WA SF
PHI - 229.8 DKPPG (11th) - WA C/PF
T50U: Embiid (3), Lillard (16), CJ (39)
T10D: Simmons (7-PG), Butler (2-SG), Harkless (10-SF), Aminu (9-PF), Nurkic (4-C), Embiid (9-C)
B5D: NONE
The Main Slate:
Do you like slates where 11 of the 22 teams are on the 2nd game of a B2B?? Oh boy. This isn’t as nice a slate as yesterday. Let’s get to it.
Matchup Specific Ceiling (MSC) Pick of the Day
Matchup Specific Ceiling is a “quasi-metric” I use to make decisions. If you haven’t read my explanation, please check out this link right here
The explanation begins in the “injury/lineup news” section about halfway down.
In this section, I will pick the player who has fewest factors preventing him from reaching his ceiling, considering spread, pace, O/U, defense, usage, teammate health, and other factors.
PG13 - This is a slate where, as far as I see, everything falls into place pretty easily. There are a few plays that are above and beyond all the others. I expect most people to be on Russ here, which is a fine play completely, but I will get on PG13 (10600). First, he unquestionably has one of the highest ceilings on the slate. He can get you 50 real points in this matchup. Second, this game has the highest total on the slate at 238.5, which is phenomenal, and the spread of OKC -7 is close enough. Third, this is a game between the fastest and 3rd fastest teams in the NBA which is literally almost as good as it gets. Fourth, SAC is a bad defense that allows the 10th most DKPPG a game to their opponents and is weakest against the SF position (where PG13 plays). Lastly, PG13 is 12th in the NBA in usage. While there are several players I love, the usage on this team goes through Russ and PG13 and I would select at least one of them to start your team off tonight.
Situations to take advantage of (in no particular order):
Suns vs Hawks - Over the last month, no two teams in the NBA have given up more DKPPG. It’s pretty stark, just how poorly both of these teams have been at preventing points from being scored in all different manners. We are also looking at the Suns, who are worst in the NBA against SG and SF, as well as the Hawks, who are worst in the NBA against PF and have the worst defender in the NBA at PG. Seriously, this game is awesome from top to bottom and get as much of it as you can. My favorite play is Trae (7800). Please go back through my last couple weeks of articles where I talk about the Hawks and you will see me consistently saying Trae has turned a corner and looks like a different player. I keep saying that we should expect it to continue, and he is underpriced. Well last night he was priced 7800 and put up 49.5 DKP again, getting 30 points, 10 assists, and 2 rebounds (including 5 3s). We should expect the same tonight. Booker (8300) had a terrible start to the Suns’ last game, the Suns got blown out, and Booker still got 38 minutes and reached value. This is a considerably better matchup than that one. Oubre (6000) is someone who can easily push 7x tonight in this matchup as well, especially if he gets the start over Jackson (5800)again. Huerter is going to miss again, which helps Trae, but also makes Bazemore (4400) the starter, and he should be able to reach value again today, even after a relatively disappointing performance last night. Tyler Johnson (4100) will be matched against Trae when he is on the court, and he is coming off a 30 DKP performance. If you are into this kind of thing, Len (3700) could have some extra oomph against a team that he could think never gave him a fair shake. Anyone I didn’t mention is still in a great spot, I just don’t think they are as good as other people for any number of factors.
Kemba - Over their last 15 games, the Hornets have been playing at the 3rd slowest pace in the NBA while the Nets have been playing at the 2nd fastest. On top of that, the Nets have allowed the 6th most DKPPG in the last month. When you are responsible for most of your team’s production, like Kemba (9000) is, this is music to your ears. I loved Kemba last night against Washington when Kemba was priced at 9200 and he responded by getting over 50 DKP again. His price fell 200 and he’s in a significantly better matchup tonight. Both team-wise, and individually, as Satoransky is one of the better defenders at his position and Russell is really, really not. Kemba has Zeller (5300)back, and he has been playing like he did in the first part of this year. On a slate when there are a ton of other expensive plays, Kemba is going to be overlooked. He is also going to go apeshit tonight, so get on him. I also absolutely love Zeller tonight. Assuming he is good to go on a B2B, he is a Center going against the Nets. He got 11p/9r/3a/3b last night in 30 minutes and, as bad as the Wizards are against Center, the Nets are even worse.
Caris LeVert - You want someone who was popular last game and will be completely unowned today? Here you go. LeVert (5500) is the same player he was last game. He is still starting. He is still going to get 30+ minutes if the game’s flow doesn’t prevent him from getting minutes (because of blow out, etc.). He can get you over 40 DKP here with a full run of minutes, and given this game has a total of almost 230 with a spread of only CHA -2, he should push past 30 minutes today. He wouldn’t even need 1 PPM at that rate to crush that value, and he should exceed that. Speaking of which, just cause Caris eats doesn’t mean DLo (8200) can’t also get his. Look at 2 games ago where LeVert got 35 DKP and D’Angelo got 65 of his own. I know this is a pace down spot, but the Hornets are mediocre across the board, and he will still be the main focus of this team. Last person I want to mention is Ed Davis (3500). I just feel like they are going to give him more run today, where he should push 22 minutes again, and he should easily get you a load of points against this Hornets backup squad.
Pacers/Wizards PICK EM - WOOOOOOO!!! I LOVE Pick ‘Ems. Don’t ask me why. I just get really excited. I will take any and all extra chance a game reaches overtime that I can get, and you can’t get more of a chance than Vegas thinking the game ends in a tie. The Pacers plays will come down to the status of Turner (6300). If he is forced to miss again, I don’t know how you don’t play the living fuck out of both O’Quinn (3000) and Sabonis (5700) here. Especially given how bad the Wizards are against Center. This matchup is light years better than yesterday’s. The Wizards are worst in the NBA against PF, so if Turner is out, I would also have some interest in Thad Young (5800) though I ideally want him priced closer to 5k than 6k for his general ceiling. Wes (4700) and Bojan (5600) also have fantastic individual defensive matchups, meaning I wouldn’t mind running with either of them either (in case one of them goes. I wouldn’t play both at the same time.) On the WIzards side, this team sinks and swims with Beal (9300). I wasn’t on him yesterday, truth be told, because his production before the Sato injury had been muted, but he stayed as aggressive yesterday at he had when Sato was out. I have a good feeling that this is going to be a new normal, and wasn’t just a matchup specific game plan. Last game Beal got 46 POINTS/7a/6r/1s. While I wouldn’t expect him to reach value in actual points again (since this is a tougher matchup, not cause he can’t do it), I wouldn’t be surprised if he surpasses 50 DKP pretty easily again. I also don’t know how you don’t take a chance on Portis (6200)if Myles is out.
Kings - This is basically a team that we need to take advantage of, but that we should also be careful of. They spread out their minutes and their production and they are increasingly hard to predict. That being said, I can only do my best to analyse what I can see, so I will have to do that. What I can tell you is that this game is awesome, as I discussed in the PG13/Russ section. It’s supposed to stay close too. And I know Westbrook should be on Fox, PG13 would be on Bogdan, and Adams would be on WCS. That means if I am going anywhere here, I am going to focus on Hield (6500) and Bagley (6100). Both are going to be in the best possible match ups for people playing against the Thunder, and both have shown you the ability to take over a game. Hield has been showing you a floor lately of about 4.5x, and shown the ability to get 50 DKP. Bagley is much more crazy, alternating games of nearly 50 DKP and sub-20DKP. While this is the turn for him to get under 20 DKP, I will bet on him getting close to 50 DKP instead. Also, can I admit something? I seriously JUST NOW realized that PG13 is the same as the movie rating. It just never clicked for some reason before. Man, the human brain is funny.
Situations to be careful of(in no particular order):
Grizzlies vs. Cavs - This is one of two games that look just fucking terrible tonight. With 11 games to choose from, there is really no reason to choose between two shitty teams, with a total of 202.5, who play at the slowest and 5th slowest paces in the NBA. That being said, JoVal (5000) is supposed to be back tomorrow and if he is, I will lock him in without any hesitation. If he misses again, I will lock in Noah (4300). Conley (7700) is matched up against Sexton, so he should do OK, but there are just better people out there on this large a slate.
Pistons vs Heat - The 2nd of the 2 games that are just Fart Noise. Another horrible total of 205.5 between the 4th slowest and 6th slowest teams in the NBA. Just not something that we want to target. The Pistons give up the 4th fewest DKPPG as a team and the Heat give up the 5th fewest. On a 4 game slate, I’m sure we could overanalyze this and try to find more to like than we should, but, when you have this many games, you do yourself a disservice to not play these kinds of games sparingly. Vegas totals aren’t the end-all-be-all, but when all the numbers tell you “This game will have less possessions, less scoring, less points, and less fantasy production overall” you either have to get really lucky or know something everyone else doesn’t. That being said, if you are going to go anywhere here, Blake (8900) is probably as pissed off as Blake owners were last night, and is in the only position Miami is weak against. Kennard (4100) is also really underpriced for his minutes and expected production, but I don’t consider him a priority. I will definitely get him in there, though, if I only have 4200 or so left. With Dragic coming back, I just can’t take anyone here. I assume they will need the minutes for Whiteside (6700) against the huge Detroit frontcourt, but who knows if they’re gonna make sense this time. If you think they do, Whiteside could be one of the cheapest routes to 50 DKP tonight.
Celtics vs Bulls - The Celtics are a really good team and the Bulls are a really bad team. It’s pretty simple. This game has the highest spread with BOS 10.5 point road favorites, which should tell you everything you need to know. Kyrie (9100) is awesome, but he is priced the same as people who are in better spots tonight. There’s no reason for that risk if you are playing a single lineup, but you should definitely play him if you’re playing MME. The one spot I would attack Boston is at PF, through Morris, but Lauri (8000) is getting way, way too expensive here. LaVine (7300) is going against one of the best defenders in the NBA in Smart (4200). Again, it’s not that this game is devoid of points, but everyone is priced slightly more than I would like even in a game with a decent chance of staying close.
Situations to monitor:
Brow QUESTIONABLE - Granted, Brow is only limited to 25 or so minutes anyway, but he is Questionable for tonight’s game against the Lakers. I honestly don’t think it matters. He doesn’t want to play, doesn’t want to be there, and isn’t getting enough minutes to make a huge difference any way. If last game is any indication this Pels team is in full tank mode. Brow got 20 minutes. Jrue got 25. Randle got 25. I don’t think you can play any of them anymore. If you are going to go anywhere on that team, go cheap. Even then, I don’t think you can count on any single player. Just cause Diallo (3100) had a ceiling game yesterday doesn’t mean he will again tonight, but if Brow misses, and Randle is limited again by the team, he may have no choice but to put in 30 minutes again. Kenrich (5400) is the only safe bet on this team for 30 minutes a game. Moore is no longer playing on back to backs either, so that should lock in some minutes for him. Miller missed last game, as well, and should be considered questionable, at best, for tonight. One of my favorite insane punts on the day is Stanley Johnson (3000). He got 20 minutes last night and, while he did shit with them, he should get significantly more with Moore out and, at minimum price, how can you not take that chance. On the other side of this game, I don’t know how you can trust paying almost 11k for LeBron (10800) if the Lakers can so easily handle a hobbled team trying to lose. I do love Kuzma (6300) though, since this is going to be one of those games that LeBron is going to just keep passing it off to the kid, and he could put up 15 shots before the half. Bullock (4200) is also way, way too underpriced. He should get you 6x here pretty easily.
KAT QUESTIONABLE - KAT was entered into the NBA’s concussion protocol yesterday after his car accident, and he wasn’t able to play. It is certainly possible he is forced to miss again today. He will travel with the team to MIL, but there is no guarantee we find out until the pre-game workout is over which is generally about 90 minutes before tip off (which is why so many games that tip off at 830-9 have so many players listed out at around 7pm on so many nights). If he plays, KAT (10200) shouldn’t be limited and should be able to reach value, even against a tricky BroLo. If he misses, we have to lock in Taj (3800) again. The Bucks are really, really fucking good though. Don’t sleep on how hard it will be for most of these Wolves to pay off their salaries. Do you know how hard it is to play at the 5th fastest pace and give up the 21st most DKPPG? You have to have a REALLY REALLY good D. And that’s what the Wolves will be against. The Bucks side of this game should be determined by KAT’s status too, unfortunately. If KAT misses, there is going to be a much tougher road for the Wolves to plow, especially travelling from NY to MIL last night. I would have a much harder time paying up for any of the Bucks in this circumstance. If KAT plays, we can go all in on Giannis (11000) since most people will be looking to get the studs from OKC in instead. Granted, I don’t like him nearly as much as them, but that’s why he is a GPP punt, isn’t it? I also think that, regardless, you have to give serious, serious consideration to BroLo (4300). He has been getting well over 30 min a game, and he should be able to do that today. And he will be in a great matchup against either KAT or Taj.
Harden QUESTIONABLE - I mean… if I was James Harden (11500) I would have been really, really pissed when I looked at the news and saw that I was being listed as being questionable with a cervical strain. I mean, sure, the secondary definition of cervical is “relating to the neck”, but is that really what you associate that word with?? Especially now? I mean, just say he strained his fucking neck?? Right? Anyway. If he misses, I don’t know how you play anyone in this game. Like, seriously. Just skip it. The Rockets have no chance of doing anything with Austin Rivers or Gerald Green starting at the 2 instead. Seriously. Look at that team and tell me what path there is to success. CP3 pretending it is 2013? Capela somehow getting past one of the better teams of Cousins/Dray over and over again? If Harden plays, I want 12 people from this game. Given that the O/U and spread have already come out, Vegas already knows if Harden is playing. Since those are 235 and GS -8, I would guess they think Harden isplaying (If Houston was at home, the spread would be GS -2 since it’s 3 points either way. If Harden was out, it would never be that). Harden will probably be matched up with Klay, who is the 5th worst SG in DRPM. I don’t know how you don’t give him heavy consideration as your superstar today (especially if Russ/PG13 are chalk). Durant (9400)would be matched up against Eric Gordon, who is the 3rd worst SG in DRPM. And Durant is going to single-handedly push him to 2nd worst by the time this game is over. CP3 (7600) is coming off a 55 DKP performance and draws a decent matchup against Curry here. Everyone went crazy when they said they weren’t specifically limiting Cousins (7100) anymore and he still put up just 27 minutes. I know a lot of that has to do with him getting 5 fouls in those 27 minutes, but we need to also understand that just cause a coach says they are no longer considering a minutes restriction doesn’t mean someone like Cousins is going to jump up to 40 minutes. While the 6100 he was last game is something we can pay for 30 minutes of, we are, again, reaching questionable territory with Cousins at this price. That being said, if he does manage 35 minutes (which I still don’t think we will see for a few weeks), he should be able to pay this salary off for GPPs. Though I expect that, once again, he will be one of the 5 highest owned players and, with that in mind, I would look elsewhere. For example, Capela (6800) has a tough matchup against Cousins/Dray, as previously discussed, but he is someone who can get 36 minutes tonight and would need 1PPM to get you value, which he could easily do. While I wouldn’t think it exceedingly likely, Capela has shown the ability to get 60+ DKP in matchups against GS before (although that was before Cousins came back). Klay (6600) has a great matchup against Harden, and will be asked to catch and shoot more with CP3 guarding Curry. He could be in for one of his 40 real point games here. Dray (6100) isn’t someone I like playing, but, as I always say, if he is priced under 7k, you can play him. The more he is under 7k, the better he is. And the better the matchup it is, he gets a bonus. So double bonus there. Iguodala (3800) is also someone who gets really heavy run in games like this. I expect he will do the same today and will be closer to the 25-30 DKP range than the 15-20.
Doncic QUESTIONABLE - So, the Line/Spread for this game is 215.5, UTA -10 so that tells me they don’t expect Doncic to play, and, therefore, they don’t expect this game to stay close at all. I have to say that, this time, I agree with them. The Mavs just have no way to win these kinds of games without him. The Jazz are a quick team, but a very defensive-minded team, and will give loose playing players like Hardaway and Burke absolute fits. So, let’s just get this out of the way- If Doncic (8800) plays, I want him and Donovan (8500) while giving serious consideration to Gobert (7900) who will be able to eat up either Mejri or Powell. Speaking of which, as I have said on many occasions, while Gobert is the best defensive Center, the Jazz as a team are incredible weak against Centers, meaning I am a huge, huge fan of Powell (4000) and will be taking a longer look than I care to at Mejri (3100) who would be a great, great punt in that he’s almost minimum price, in a great spot no one expects, won’t be owned, and has a chance for 10x tonight in his 24 minutes. I would be fine with any of these cheap guys even if Doncic is out. I would also lock in Brunson (3500) who really responded today, putting up 22p/5a/2r/1s/1b. Given his price, and their lack of depth, Brunson should get another 30 minutes tonight and should easily pay off that salary. I imagine he is going to be exceedingly popular if Doncic is declared out early, but you will be able to get him really, really sneaky-deaky like if Doncic remains questionable through lock before being ruled out. If Doncic is out, the only Jazz player I would have interest in is Crowder (4100) who will get his run and his value no matter what happens in this game.
Wow! Welcome back, bathrobe. That was a hell of a slate to cover. I am as excited as ever!!! Since there’s only 3 games on Sunday, I hope to do both an NBA article and a team or 2 for my MLB series. I can’t wait to share all of that with all of you wonderful people. And I have some stories from Vegas I can’t wait to share with you, too. Best of luck tonight, everyone. Don’t forget to take the time this week to tell the people that matter how much they mean to you. It will make their day, and will make yours a lot more than you realize.
Comments