MLB Sports Betting Picks for Sunday, August 4th, 2024!
QUICK NEWS & NOTES:
I am back on vacation all next week so will have several plays posted and I'll be getting ready for our upcoming NFL season. You asked to follow my picks and write up more sports betting plays and we HEARD YOU!
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SUMMER PICK RUN: 75-41
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MINNESOTA TWINS (-1.5) OVER CHICAGO WHITE SOX
White Sox now 0-19 making history and we keep riding the train betting against them! Over the L10 games they have been outscored 72-24 so that's 7.2 runs vs. 2.4 runs per game. CWS bullpen still ranks 30th for us in our custom rankings and 0-5 with an ERA just under 8.00 over the L2 weeks. Only the #8 hitter in the projected lineup is hitting over .195 over the L2 weeks and it's ugly if you can see the "Main" tab on the cheatsheet. MIN not great but playing @ HOME they are 31-21 and their wRC+ jumps from 101 to 125 and they have outscored the CWS 16-4 over the L2. Flexen road ERA 5.83 allowing .265 avg and has allowed 9-7-4-5-7-6-6 hits in his L7 starts so he is just over a hit per inning. Richardson average at best but has a great HOME split where his ERA drops from 4.34 down to 3.09 and avg allowed .273 down to .187. MIN 16 of 44 (.364) vs. Flexen and one MIN hitter is 8 of 11 (.727) with 2 HRs so he has to be excited for this matchup!
NEW YORK METS (QUINTANA) OVER LA ANGELS (CANNING)
The easiest game to spot is the NYM - look on the "Betting Board" and the "H/IP" in column "T". Here we see Quintana at 0.60 vs. Canning 1.26 and that is a HUGE difference plus it gets our "POWER PLAY" indicator so that's another plus! LAA 3-6 over the L9 and rank 26th in our power rankings and dead last in ISO power and 27th in HRs so that tells us they are unlikely to "run away" with the game. Both bullpens have been solid so the edge here is in the starters but don't mind the game line. NYM rank 10th in our power rankings despite only 6-4 over the L10 but I like to see them 10th in ISO power, 6th in HRs and 6th in RBIs and 10th in wRC+ so those are all good team indicators they are playing well. Canning has a 5.25 ERA allowing a .264 avg and above average WHIP with 2+ walks in each of his last 6 starts and has allowed 6+ ER in 2 of 3 and 4+ ER in 4 of 6. Quintana is on my fantasy team so I've followed him closely - 3.89 ERA and .237 avg and slightly elevated stats on the road. Over his last 5 starts he has only allowed 1-1-5-0-0 ER. COL blew him up but the other 4 he is averaging only 0.5 runs per start and he goes 6-7 innings. NYM currently 0.5 games out of the WC so they need to WIN the game!
BALTIMORE (CORBIN BURNES) [FIRST 5 INNINGS] OVER CLEVELAND
BAL outranks CLE in our custom power rankings 9th vs. 24th and love some Corbin Burnes action so I'm going to attach the first 5 innings either ML or RL as the CLE bullpen is "elite" and has the edge over BAL. Gavin Williams has a 3.72 ERA but has struggled at home in limited innings. He hasn't really faced enough tough opponents outside of the Padres. He faced DET (29th) 3 times and CWS (30th) one time and then TB so I'm not really sure what to expect. In his L2 HOME starts he allowed 6 hits and 3 ER in each and BAL is the toughest lineup he has seen so assuming 5-6 IP and 3 ERs. Corbin Burnes has a 2.47 ERA allowing a low .214 avg and even a lower .185 when on the ROAD. He has allowed 2-3-1-3-2-1 ER in over L6.
BOSTON (EOVALDI) VS. TEXAS (PIVETTA) OVER 8.5 TOTAL RUNS
Can we get another OVER? BOS is RED HOT and rank #1 in our power rankings but facing a good pitcher that has a great HOME split so we will know if the first 3 innings if we are going to get the over or not. BOS bullpen also terrible ranking 28th with an ERA of 6.57 and WHIP of 1.75. The recent totals in BOS games looks like this 11-17-5-16-21-10-19-16-27 so 8-1 "OVER" run. TEX struggles to score but Pivetta has allowed 16 hits and 10 ER in his L2 so we will take a shot. He did toss a 2 hitter vs. LAD which has me scratching my head and then faced OAK and gave up 6 hits and 4 ERs. Eovaldi has been great (especially @ HOME) but has allowed 3-2-6-1-2 ER over his L5 so if BOS can hang 3 on him I think this will cruise to 9+ runs!
SECONDARY SHOTS TO CONSIDER BUT DIDN'T MAKE OUR TOP CUT OF PLAYS:
MIAMI MARLINS (+215) OVER ATLANTA
I picked ATL but then saw the Vegas win percentage of 61% and mine of 53% and knew I had to check the line. You have to understand the line and at (+215) you only need to win this 32% of the time to be profitable. So we are saying this is a BIG DOG but we think they win more than 32 out of 100 times vs. ATL. MIA ranks 8th in our power rankings vs. 16th of ATL and they are both playing close games and both bullpens are elite so this should be close. Fried has allowed 5-11-6-6 hits and has 3+ walks in 2 of 4 but has limited the runs getting across the plate. Cabrera has allowed 2-3-1-7-2 ERs but ONLY 3-3-5-6-4 hits and has the #1 bullpen.
NEW YORK YANKEES (GERRIT COLE) (-1.5) OVER TORONTO (YARIEL RODRIGUEZ)
TOR is another team I like to pick on so let's get after them today! TOR is 1-4 over the L5 and that bullpen has an ERA nearing 6.00 and whip nearing 1.70. NYY are 6-1 over the L7 and check scoring 8-5-6-7-14-8-11 runs over that span moving to #2 in our power rankings and check 1st in wRC+, HRs, RBIs & ISO power. Yariel Rodriguez is decent but his walks are alarming as he has allowed 4-1-3-2-2-3-3. Gerrit cole was blasted by the NYM in his last start for 8 hits & 6 ERs but prior 2 he was just under a hit an inning and 1 ER in each so not sure what we will get from Cole but hoping he can give us 5-6 innings of 1-2 runs and I'd be happy.
CHECK OUT SOME OF OUR RESULTS FROM RECENT DAYS!
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