MLB Plays & Stats from CheatSheetPros!
NEWS & NOTES: Sorry I had a crazy busy work week so didn’t have time for articles at the beginning of the week. I did keep the MLB Cheatsheets posted, updated the NFL Fantasy Football ADP Guide and posted the PGA Cheatsheet for the TOUR Championship!
PITCHERS TO CONSIDER:
JUSTIN VERLANDER (12000) – Stud pitcher with the best stats coming off 5 of last 6 starts at 30+ DK points. He also has 11, 11, 10, 13 and 11 strikeouts in those and facing DET who is terrible. Home ERA of 2.59 with a 12.2 K9 ratio, 17.2% swinging strike rate and allowing a .177 opponent average. STUD! Also #1 bullpen behind him!
WALKER BUEHLER (11400) – If you want to pivot off Verlander you can come down to Buehler who is coming off a round outing (on the road) putting up 4.0 innings with 5 ER and 6 strikeouts (even hit 2 batters). He is much better @ HOME as we have been touting his home starts all year long! His recent HOME starts are 25, 52, 39, 22 and 53 DK points. HUGE CEILING games all coming at home and should be lower owned after that shit show last time out! Home split is phenominal which is why there was a 50 point line move from -300 (open) to -360. Home ERA drops from 4.37 down to 2.33, K9 is much better going from 9.5 to 11.5 and whip goes from a solid 1.26 down to a microscopic 0.82 and his allowed batting average goes from .254 down to a .196. TOR also hitting .220 as a team over the last week and scoring only 3.2 runs per game. Another solid option up top!
CALEB SMITH (9400) – This guy dominated all year and then hit a wall for 2 games vs. TB where he went 5.0 innings and walked 4 guys putting up only 11 DK points and then follow that up with a -0.10 point outing vs. ATL giving up 10 hits, 6 ER in only 4.2 innings. He was priced up to 10,600 2 starts ago so we get a deep discount. He is coming off a solid 18 DK point start vs. LAD going 5.0 innings – 1 ER and 4 Ks. He did walk 3 in that contest. He if can limit his walks he could provide good value. His strikeouts have been down as he only has 4 per game over the last 3 starts but prior to that he had 9, 9 and 7. Either he is wearing down or was in a funk. GPP only for me but worth a shot. He also has great allowing batting average numbers as he is only allowing a .210 average on the road, .194 vs. LHH and .209 vs. RHH. BVP numbers aren’t great as they are hitting .333 off him through 54 Abs.
ADAM WAINWRIGHT (9000) – Coming off 20 and 27 DK point starts he has went 12.2 innings with 4 ER and 14 strikeouts. 2x floor and pushing 3x ceiling. Great home split as his road ERA is a 6.64 but at home it drops down to 2.19 and he only allows a .238 opponent average at home.
PUNT: JOE MUSGROVE (5900) – I don’t mind mixing and matching these next 4 guys today and then mixing them with Verlander and Buehler. Caleb Smith & Waino come with a lot of risk and low floor for a 9k pitcher but GPP I’ll give them a look. Musgroves last 3 starts have been 28, 13 and -5 DK points. He went from giving up 8 ER in 3.1 innings vs. NYM to shutting the Cubbies down to 2 ER across 7.1 innings with 9 Ks. Risk-Reward option here as if he pushed 30 DK points that is 5x value and you won’t get close to 5x from Caleb or Waino! Tough matchup vs. a red hot Nationals team!
PUNT: ADRIAN HOUSER (5200) – Coming off 18 and 33 DK point outings this would be a great return if he can reproduce those starts. He went 7.0 with 1 ER @ WASH and then 6.0 with 1 ER and 10 STRIKEOUTS vs. TEX!
PUNT: DERECK RODRIGUEZ (4800) – I’m going to refer to him as D-Rod for the day. D-Rod is coming off 25, -7 and 23 DK point starts. Up and down we go! Putting up 23 DK points @ COL is impressive as he went 5.0 with 1 ER and 6 Ks and then his most recent start was 25 DK points going 7.0 with 0 ER and 4 Ks @ ARI. He did get lit up @ PHL going 3.0 with 4 ERs. We only need 15 DK points for 3x value, if he can climb to 20-25 that is 4x-5x! Huge returns with risk! His home ERA is 5.79 but on the road it drops to a 4.15, he also has a better whip 1.57 dropping to 1.27 and his opponent allowed batting average goes from .274 down to .247. Cubbies ony hitting .209 as a team over the last week.
PUNT: MIKE MONTGOMERY (4200) – His 3 most recent starts he is showing flashes of greatness! 16, 42 and 19 DK points. Okay not greatness but I can hope right? @ BOS he went 5.0 with 2 ER and 7 Ks – very impressive vs. that lineup. Then he crushed DET going 7.0 with 0 ER and 12 strikeouts for 40+ points and then 19 DK points vs. NYM going 6.0 with 0 ER and 3 Ks. In his last 3 starts he has 18.0 innings of work, 2 ER and 22 strikeouts. Price is ridiculous for his upside!
RECAP: I typically like to keep my two pitchers on DK around 16,000 but I’ll move it up or down depending on the stacks I want to work in. Right now you can go Verlander/D-Rod for 16,800 or Buehler/D-Rod for 16,200 so that is the range I’m looking at. You want to do a monster hitting stack then run 2 of the Montgomery/D-Rod/Houser and only spend around $10,000 on pitching and load up stud hitters and have a fun night watching baseball!
STACKS & PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST:
LA DODGERS vs. Font – He is allowing a .283 opponent average on the road with a 1.43 whip and ERA of 5.70. Also the 21st bullpen behind him. LAD 5 man stacks run 4360-4700 depending on the lineup and they are on fire right now! #1 in our L10 game power rankings and scoring 7.7 runs per game and hitting .296 as a team. Everything we look for in a stack!
HOUSTON vs. Norris – I’ll wait and see the ownership here as HOU has been in a funk before last nights win. Norris is allowing a .285 average on the road with a 4.52 ERA and 1.41 whip. 22nd ranked bullpen after Norris comes out. I don’t mind it but based on cost (5180 for top 5 man average stack price) and ownership I might pivot or just get 1-2 hitters to fill in another stack.
ATLANTA vs. Caleb Smith – Now I like Caleb Smith and hope he is turning back into form but if you want to stack him I’m going to give you the keys to the castle. ATL is cheap tonight because Smith has solid numbers (3.95 road ERA, 1.12 whip and allowing a .210 average). However, as I wrote above he has been walking a ton of batters and that has been killing him. He has also been prone to getting knocked around. If ATL got to him and got him out of the game by the 4th inning they get the 29th ranked bullpen that has an xFIP of 5.41 with a 1.54 whip and allowing 2.52 HR per 9 (insane numbers!). You can 5 man stack ATL (if you want to go this route) for a high of 4580 and you can even get it down to 3920 which is dirt cheap for a team scoring 5.2 runs per game over the last week.
BOSTON vs. Smyly – This will be CHALK as they are projected at 6.6 runs. If you want to attach this use LHH as Smyly is allowing an 11.81 ERA – 1.94 whip and .338 batting average to LHH. Devers, Benintendi and JBJ.
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