MLB Sports Betting Picks, Prize Picks & DFS Stacks from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
This is basically a "super article" so I can attack all 3 of these questions in the same article. When I have more time I'll also include the start pitchers that I like and one off players for fantasy. I will also include the parlay of the day that I like. I recently purchased a golf cart and it got delivered today so I that ate up about 2 hours of my afternoon when I started this article. So let's go get some money!
SPORTS BETTING PICKS:
I am not a handicapping service so I don’t tell you exactly what to bet. I’ll give you the games I’m on and why and you can decide if you want to bet them straight up, run line or parlay them together.
PADRES (-175) over TEXAS
Joe Musgrove takes the mound after opening with 6 scoreless innings and 8 Ks. Texas is 23rd in our last 10 game power rankings and he has the 2nd best bullpen behind him in our custom rankings. On the other side is Kohei Airhara who allowed 3 runs and only 1 K in 5 innings in his first start against KC. Padres rank 12th in our last 10 power rankings and after Arihara leaves the game we get to hammer on the 26th rated bullpen.
HOUSTON (-170) over OAKLAND
This is purely a play against Oakland who is 1-7 and ranks dead last in our last 10 game power rankings. Their projected starting lineup only has 2 hitters batting over .200 and they are Canha at .233 and Lowrie at .250 and 3 of the hitters are batting below .100. Lance McCullers returned to form going 5 innings with 1 ER and 7 Ks against Oakland on 4/03. Ride them again!
CINCY (-140) over ARIZONA
I don’t mind a RUN LINE (-1.5) here as that should be “+” money. CIN is hot right now at 5-1 and 2nd in our last 10 game power rankings and Arizona is cold sitting at 27th with a 2-5 record. So how does the pitching look? CIN will get Taylor Widener and the 23rd rated bullpen. Widener did well going 6 innings with 0 ER and 5Ks vs. a solid Padres team in his first start but can her get any run support? Doubtful. Arizona is going to face Tyler Mahle who faced STL in his first start and went 5 innings 2 ER and a whopping 9 Ks. Last year Tyler Mahle allowed a low .198 batting average on the road with K9 rate of 10.5 and a 0.95 whip.
STACKS TO CONSIDER:
CLEVELAND
This will be chalky as they have the 2nd highest implied run total behind LAA. CLE is cold right now ranking 19th in our power rankings and only 3.4 runs per game but they are CHEAP! You can stack 5 hitters for as low as 3360 and as high as 4440 per player. The must here is holding the 3-4-5 combo of Jose Ramirez, Rosario and Reyes as they have the most upside, most power and highest ceilings. I’d fade the projected #2 hitter in Cesar Hernandez as he is only hitting .111 this year and batting .205 off Julio Teheran in 44 Abs.
HOUSTON
#1 Team in our last 10 game power rankings holding a 6-1 record is one of my favorite stacks of the night. They have an implied run total of 5.1 which ranks in the 3rd/4th highest implied total. Houston is hot! 7.3 runs per game, team batting average of .289, yes sir! They are priced decent for a 5 man stack because you can fit in some 3800-4000 hitters and really lower the average cost per hitter. Anyone in the 1-6 spots is solid right now. My preferred stack would be 2-3-4-5-6 for an average of 4460 per hitter.
CINCY
Should be lower owned since it’s only a 4.8 implied run total. Taylor Widener is decent and started off solid but that 23rd ranked bullpen is nasty. If CIN can get him out of the game early this could be a low owned run fest. CIN ranks 2nd in our last 10 game power rankings and they are CHEAP! I can run a 5 man stack at 3680-4300. Nick Castellanos is 5300 and the only guy priced over 4400 and is a must for your stack as he is hitting .435 this season with a 17.2 PPG average. Votto is struggling so I’d skip over him. Right now the projected starting lineup on our MLB sheet I’d go 1-2-5-6-7. Jonathan India is hitting an obserd .476 also and is tied for the highest ceiling game this year priced at a low 3500. If you do another 5 man stack I like taking the 3 off hitters from this game as a mini-stack.
PHILLY
Ranking 4th in our last 10 power rankings they only have an implied run total of 3.6 so this is our low owned GPP risk/reward stack. They are sitting at 4.3 runs per game and hitting .262 as a team. They face Charlie Morton (reason for the low implied total) but the BVP is decent as the projected starting lineup has 118 Abs vs. Morton and they are hitting a solid .280 against him with a lower 22% K rate. Bullpen they face when he leaves the game ranks 19th so that’s not terrible. Charlie Morton faced PHI in his first start and went 5.0 innings and gave up 3 ERs so he is hittable. Bryce Harper is a must in the stack as he is hitting a whopping .584 (7 for 12) off Morton with a HR.
PRIZE PICK PLAYS FOR MLB:
CUETO UNDER 5.5 Ks – Last two starts in Colorado he only had 4 and 4 and COL has started the year with a low 20% K rate as a team. BVP wise COL is hitting Cueto at a .309 clip through 81 Abs. Take a shot here at the under as the wind is blowing OUT so they might knock him out early. Fingers crossed!
LANCE MCCULLERS OVER 6.0 Ks – Oakland is ice cold right now and their K% as a team is 26.1%. The BVP data is only 90 team Abs but a high 29% K rate. McCullers only tossed 5.0 innings but had 7 Ks when he faced them on 4/03 to start the season. Take a shot at the over here.
TYLER MAHLE OVER 6.5 Ks – ARI has a 25% K rate on the year and Mahle had a K9 rate north of 11 last year. Coming off a 9 K start against a tough STL team that has Nolan Arenado and Goldschmidt it’s worth a shot here. I wish the line was 6.0 and not 6.5 but still taking a shot.
ZACH WHEELER OVER 6.0 Ks – Coming off 7.0 innings with 10 Ks against ATL he gets to face them again. I typically worry about the second start against the team because they’ve already faced him but not in this case. BVP data has 141 team Abs against Wheeler and they have a high 27% K rate and hitting only .255. I mean Albies is hitting .091, Freeman .111 and Ozuna .100 on the year and those are the guys I’m worried the most about. Line should be 6.5 but I’m happy as a clam with 6.0.
TYLER MAHLE OVER 29.5 FANTASY POINTS – Prize Picks gives you +3 for a strikeout and -3 for an ER so those ratios are key. You also get +4 quality start, +6 for the win and +1 for each out so figure 3 points per inning pitched. Mahle coming off 5 innings and should get another 5 (+15 points) and he had 9Ks last time out but even at 6 that is +18 points and two ER is (-6) so that puts us at 27 points and we should get a “quality start” at the last here if not a “win” and that puts us at 31 going over 29. Now if he did pop off another 9 Ks that is putting us near 40ish points.
ZACH WHEELER OVER 32.5 FANTASY POINTS – Hit last start in prize points was 7 innings (+21), no ER allowed and 10 Ks (+30) and the win (+6). Over 32.5 just feels low. He should lock down another win so that’s 6 points and then we need to get to 27. 6 innings with 7 Ks and 3 ERs still gets us an over.
Thanks for reading,
Haze
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