MLB DFS Stacks from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES: (DFS Stacks)
STACKING is a must in DFS. I prefer to stack 4-5 hitters from one team and then 2-3 from another team for a “mini stack”. You can do 4/4 or 5/3, etc. The idea of stacking is when one hitter is on base and the guy behind him hits him in then you get points for the run scored and also the RBI from the other hitter. I base my stacks on cost per player and how chalky it may or may not be. Here is what I’m looking at today. NOTE: Since my kids are out of school for the summer I’m OFF on Fridays now so expect some data and plays!
DFS WINNERS:
During the last two weeks we have had two big wins. We had a premium member hit for around $5,000 and another premium member who wants to be nameless hit for $32,000. MLB is amazing!
STACKS TO CONSIDER:
ARIZONA @ COLORADO (VEGAS TOTAL 11.0 RUNS)
WEATHER: WIND blowing OUT 17mph – YES!
STACK COST: 4000 – 4400 [GREAT PRICE POINT]
Let’s get the chalky game out of the way. You can stack both of these teams for anywhere from around 4,000 – 4,400 per hitter which is a mid-low price range so I expect this to be chalky AF! COL is scoring 5.88 runs per game at home and only 2.79 on the road. COL has some of the lowest individual strikeout rates and the bullpen for Arizona ranks 28th. Josh Fuentes (3200) has been one of the hotter hitters for Colorado and has a string of 15, 3, 9, 18 and 26 DKPs. If you don’t stack COL he is a good one of hitter to use to get some exposure. C.J. Cron (3800) is also cheap and he is hitting .300 for the year.
Arizona has faced Marquez for 92 total at bats and they are hitting a whopping .359 off him with 5 bombs. Eduardo Escobar (5300) is 11 for 20 (.550) off him and David Peralta (4100) is 15 for 41 (.366) and solid guys to build your stack around. German Marquez struggles vs. LHH and it looks like ARI can roll out 7 of their 8 hitters from the left side of the plate. Marquez is giving up a .297 batting average to LHH and a 1.91 whip. Through the 2020 season he allowed a .296 batting average at Coors and only .201 on the road.
NOTE: No matter what you stack get some exposure here, my favorite pick is Josh Fuentes and Eduardo Escobar.
TAMPA BAY vs. ANTHONY KAY (7TH BULLPEN)
WEATHER: WIND 18 MPH R-L
STACK COST: 3900 – 4200 [CHEAP/LOW COST]
Anthony Kay doesn’t have many IP to focus on but in 13.2 IP this year he is allowing a 1.54 whip and .283 batting average. Last year he only had 21.0 IP and allowed a 1.71 whip and .268 average with an xFIP of 5.48. In “limited data” he has struggled vs. LHH allowing a .421 average and 1.93 whip and been solid vs. RHH with a .206 average and 0.24 whip. Austin Meadows (4600) is a LHH who has 17, 0 and 27 DKP over his last 3 and he would be my target to build around. Tampa Bay is putting up 6 runs per game on the road and 5.6 over the last 14 days and rank #1 in our L10 game power rankings! They are also #1 in HRs with (21) over that same span.
SAN DIEGO PARDRES vs. CHRIS FLEXEN (8TH BULLPEN)
WEATHER: WIND 11 MPH L-R
STACK COST: 4180 – 4520 [MID RANGE – GOOD PRICE POINT]
Padres ranks #2 in our last 10 game power rankings and putting up 5.2 runs per game over the last 14 days. They have been a putting up less at home on the year at 3.72 vs. 5.05 on the road but the season is early and they are getting hot. Padres are 9-1 L10 games and 14-6 over the L20. What is amazing is that they have 4 hitters who all grade over 92 on our stacks tab. Jake Croneworth (3800) is hitting .305 this year and projected to hit between Machado and Tatis. He also has put up 14, 13, 10, 17, 7, 14 and 25 DKPs over recent games, this guy is on FIRE! Chris Flexen has been decent this year with a 3.46 ERA but his xFIP is 4.52 and he is allowing a .300 average. Padres rank great vs. his pitch types as they are 7th and 2nd vs. his top two pitch types.
CHICAGO CUBBIES vs. CARLOS MARTINEZ (25TH BULLPEN)
WEATHER: WIND 8 MPH R-L
STACK COST: 4200 [LOW MID PRICE – SOLID PRICE POINT]
Cubs projected at only 4.4 runs per Vegas so this should be lower owned. Carlos Martinez coming off the IL making his first start back so pitch count likely limited and we can hammer on that bullpen that has an xFIP over 5.00 this year. Carlos Martinez is a great pitcher but this year has an xFIP of 5.27 through 41.1 IP. This is a GPP only stack as it could shit the bed. Cubs ranks 10th, 6th and 10th vs. his 3 top pitch types. Matt Duffy (3100) has the highest last 10 game ceiling of any Cub player. Wilson Contreras (4700) is a great add to the stack as he is 6 for 15 (.400) with a HR off Martinez. Kris Bryant and Javier Baez are both hitting under .200 with 24+ Abs off Martinez but that changes tonight!
ST LOUIS CARDINALS vs. KYLE HENDRICKS (5TH BULLPEN)
WEATHER: WIND 8 MPH R-L
STACK COST: 3760 – 3920 [DIRT CHEAP PUNT PRICING STACK]
Any stack you can get with 5 players with an average UNDER 4,000 is AMAZING! I mean this gives you room for 2 stud pitchers or stud hitters in the other 3 holes. You always have to consider stacks under 4,000 average but it’s usually teams like the Tigers, etc.
Kyle Hendricks is an average pitcher with an xFIP over 4.06 and a solid bullpen behind him. He is allowing a 1.55 whip and .311 batting average so far this year and that is through a solid 42.2 IP. His BABIP is elevated so that tells me he has been a little “unlucky”. He has been decent vs. RHH but struggling vs. LHH where he allows a .389 batting average and whip of 2.17. Tommy Edman (4500) is a switch hitter that has been hitting atop the lineup and has 25 and 13 DKP over the last two games. Dylan Carlson (2700) is priced so low for a #2 hitter and has 9 and 10 DKP over the last two, also a switch hitter. Nolan Arenado (5000) is finally getting RED HOT and hitting .304 on the year with a microscopic 13% strikeout rate and a GRADE of 103 on our MLB sheet. He also has a nice string of games putting up 5, 23, 14, 8 and 11. Paul Goldschmidt (3900) is 12 for 32 (.375) off Hendricks and his price is criminal. Harrison Bader (2700) is DIRT CHEAP and he is 5 for 15 (.357) off Hendricks and putting up around 7 DKP per game over the last two weeks.
CHICAGO WHITE SOX vs. JORDAN MONTGOMERY (1ST BULLPEN)
WEATHER: WIND 9 MPH R-L
STACK COST: [3340 - 4140]
On the surface this stack just looks stupid! I mean 97% of the bets are on the “under” and this is one of the best bullpens in the MLB. Montgomery has an ERA of 4.75 but his xFIP is a better 3.85. So, I get it! Looks rough but that is what you need for a GPP win. This stack won a GPP the other night and I was shocked when I was looking at it so I’m going to toss a line in a single entry tonight with it. Hear me out homies!
Taking the projected hitters would give you a 3-5-6-8-9 for only 3340 average.
3: Yoan Moncada – hitting .284 on the year and 9.1 FPPG last two weeks.
5: Yermin Mercedes – Low 6% K rate vs. LHP this year with a .358 average.
6: Andrew Vaughn – Priced at ONLY 2200 on DK with a 3x FPPG average.
8: Billy Hamilton – 2500 on DK and has a 15 and 32 DKP game in the last week.
9: Nick Madrigal – 2900 on DK, 0% K rate vs. LHP and a ceiling of 30 DKP in the last two weeks.
CHW are scoring 5.90 runs per game on the road and 5.7 per game over the last 14 days and 9th in HRs over that same span. They are 6th in our L10 game power rankings and 2nd in wRC+. Take a shot here!
PITCHING BREAKDOWN:
TREVOR BAUER (11,900) – Coming off 38.5 DKPs where he went 7.0 IP, 0 ER and 10 Ks his hard to look past if you can afford him in your lineup. He will be chalky so won’t spend time “pumping him up”.
AARON NOLE (11,600) – FADE: Has given up 8 ER in his last 10.2 IP and only been over 18.5 DKP once in the last 5 starts. BOS also a tough matchup!
TYLER GLASNOW (11,200) – Don’t mind him although @TOR is a tough lineup to face
but he has 10+ strikeouts in 4 of last 5 and his last in the last 4 starts is 22.7 and has been over 30 DKP twice.
IAN ANDERSON (10,500) – Hard to stomach this price tag and not really a ton of value but the matchup is great. He has 9 BB in his last 16 IP along with 8 ERs limited upside. The positive is that he is at home where he has a 2.80 xFIP and allowing a .214 average and has a K9 ratio north of 10. Bullpen behind him is 27th so that might cost him a “W” which you need in this price rang.
CARLOS RODON (9900) – He has 44 Abs vs. NYY and allowing a low .184 average. NYY are always a scare lineup but Rodon has hit 30.5, 37.7 and 47.6 DKP in 3 of his last 5 so he has a massive ceiling. 4 of the top 5 NYY projected hitters have K rates below 20% so that is a small flag for me but not enough to keep me off him.
MARTIN PEREZ (9400) – He has been solid this year and has put up 14-23.3 DKPs in his last 4 contests giving him good 2x value and can shoot for 3x upside. LAA with no Trout, BAL, DET and TEX are hardly stud teams though.
MIKE MINOR (7500) – GPP value pick here coming off a 29.3 DKP start @ CHW where he went 7.0 IP, 1 ER and 7 strikeouts. DET has a 33.7% strikeout rate vs. LHP with a .201 team batting average. Matchup is phenomenal but can Minor take advantage of it?
JOSE QUINTANA (6200) – GPP dart here and what jumps out is our “K-Monster” rating on our MLB cheatsheet. OAK has a 25.3% K rate vs. LHP and he has a crazy K9 rate of 14.6 so far this year. At 6200 you only need 12.4 DKP to get 2x value. He has 14.75, 14.8 and 12 over his last 3 starts and those were against BOS, LAD and TBR.
Free Group Link: www.Facebook.com/groups/HazeSheets/
Premium Group Access: www.CheatSheetPros.com
Twitter Follow for DFS plays & Sports Bets: https://twitter.com/CheatSheetPros
*CheatSheets are posted in our FREE Facebook group every Thursday if you want to try them out and play with them! Our members get the sheets everyday for only $14/month or $35 for 3 months. We strive on keeping our price down & teaching you how to find the key plays!
Thanks for reading & good luck!
Haze
Comments