MLB Plays & Stats from CheatSheetPros!
PITCHERS TO CONSIDER:
NOAH SYNDERGAARD (10500) – Of the 3 pitchers over $10k I feel the best about Noah. He has been consistent putting up 21, 35, 18, 26 and 30 DK points in his last 5 starts. He also has 3, 11, 8, 8 and 9 Ks in those. His home stats are worse but still a decent 4.22 xFIP and allowing a .245 ratio.
Corbin is facing a hot NYM team and 2 of his last 4 starts were sub 12 points. Corbin on the road has a 5.32 ERA vs. only 1.78 at home. NYM are scoring 7.1 runs per game and hitting .292 over the L7 days. Could be a rough outing and I would not be shocked.
Morton could get to value but at almost 12k it means he has to have a great game. Morton has a phenomenal match up vs. SEA who is scoring 2.2 runs per game over the last week and hitting .169 as a team.
CHRIS PADDACK (9600) – Recent stats are hard to look at with 4, 21 and 8 DK points in his last 3 starts. However, he did face a hot NYM team and the LAD in LA. Prior to those 3 he had 29, 22 and 34 DK points. Paddack has great splits at home and getting him for sub $10k is great. His Home/Road splits are as follows – 3.95 ERA on the road but at home it drops to 2.28, wOBA goes from .298 down to .208, K9 jumps from 8.5 to 10.6 and his batting average allowed goes from a great .214 down to a low .163. COL ranks 27th in our L10 game power rankings and they are a sub-par team outside of Coors with a wRC+ of only 79.0 and a high 25.6% strikeout rate.
SONNY GRAY (8600) – 6 of his last 7 starts he has been 21 DK points or higher which is great value and a solid floor. He even has a good ceiling with a 43 point game vs. MIL where he went 8.0 innings with 0 ER and 12 strikeouts! He has a solid home xFIP of only 3.38, with a 10.0 K9 ratio and a 1.13 whip and allowing a .236 opponent batting average. The BVP is great as they are only hitting .148 off him through 54 team Abs with a massive 30% strikeout rate.
AARON SANCHEZ (6900) – Houston pitchers continue to turn to gold when they arrive. He has 28, 21 and 18 DK points in his last 3 starts. His last 11.2 innings he has 16 strikeouts! Super cheap with 3x-4x upside.
ADRIAN “The Punt” HOUSER (4900) – Gotta give you a punt option for today. It was between Plutko and Houser. I went with Houser. He has only put up 7, 18, 10, -1 and 12 DK points in his recent performances but we only need about 2x for a punt to get a big stack. So really we are looking for around 10 points. No Vegas line on the game yet. His home ERA is only 3.38 with a 3.86 xFIP (which is solid) vs. a road ERA of 4.76. In the 24 innings he has tossed at home he has allowed a .218 batting average and a 10.1 K9 ratio. Those a great stats for his price tag! ((NOTE: Plutko missed the cut as his road split is terrible as he has a 5.31 ERA and allowing a 1.57 whip and a .322 batting average.))
Pitching Strategy: - Tonight I’m looking at pairing Sanchez/Gray and then running the same linesups with Paddack/Houser and/or Noah – Morton with Houser.
STACKS & PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST:
OUR QUICK STACK PITCHING TAB: Last night Boston was the #2 or #3 stack on the stacking tab but full disclosure I had 0 Boston stacks because my lineups were done before I went back and checked it. With cheatsheets that auto-update with starting lineups it is also good to go back and double check some stats!
DETROIT – Cheap as they are 4k and under for a 5 man stack and Mike Montgomery has a road ERA of 11.49 with a 6.18 xFIP, 2.49 whip and allowing a massive .423 batting average. Miggy is a must at 3900 putting up a double digit average over the last week. DET is also scoring 5.1 runs per game and hitting .287 as a team.
HOUSTON – I’m always going to have them because their lineup so rock solid from top to bottom. They are priced WAY UP so today I’m looking at a 4 man Houston stack mixed with 4 cheap hitters from a smaller stack such as DET, CIN, NYM, MIL, etc. Houston is hitting Brooks at a .319 clip through 47 team Abs. BAL also has the 27th ranked bullpen since July 1.
CINCY – Kyle Hendricks is solid and Cincy only projected at 4.5 runs. But the thing that caught my eye is that Hendricks on the road as a 4.32 ERA vs. only 1.89 at home, also his road allowed batting average is .275 vs. only .206 at home. CIN has faced him for 137 team Abs and hitting around .250 so decent. 5 most expensive Cincy guys are only 3800ish per hitter. You can likely stack Morton/Synder with this!
NYM – Projected at only 4.0 this would be GPP only. Corbin is solid but has had 2 of 4 games where he struggled. He has a road ERA of 5.32 vs. only 1.78 at home and allowing a .275 batting average vs. only .189 at home. NYM right now are 4th in our L10 game power rankings and scoring 7.1 runs per game while hitting .292 as a team. Wow!
MIL – Facing Payano he has less than 20 innings pitcher and allowing a .270 batting average with the 23rd ranked bullpen behind him so we are going to take a shot. MIL ranks 15th in our L10 game power rankings and hitting .261 as a team. Focus on RHH with your stack and even with a 5 man stack using Yelich at 5900 your average is only 4760 and you can get that down to 3940 mixing and matching.
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