MLB Pitcher Breakdown from CheatSheetPros!
Hello everyone! Sorry I’ve been away for a couple days but hopefully we are back on track. My mother-in-law went into the hospital AND my dog ate a Barbie outfit that clogged his small intestines and required him to almost have surgery but stay in the dog ER for a day and a half. Work also had me hopping and popping this week! I’m looking forward to the weekend. My son has a baseball game Friday night, Saturday morning, Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning. Going to be a long weekend!
PITCHERS TO CONSIDER:
HIGH END STUDS: (For this category I’m going to first list their range over their last 5-7 starts and then look at the opponent team’s wRC+ on home or road.)
VERLANDER (11000) – 20.7 to 36.3 DK points. Giving us a solid 2x floor with some upside. Texas on the road has a solid wRC+ of 113.4 but they also have a 26.9% team strikeout rate which makes Verlander worthwhile!
CASTILLO (10600) – 15.3 to 34.0 DK points. Facing SFG they are currently holding one of the worst wRC+ scores of 58.5 and add in a team .207 batting average. Castillo is viable if you want to spend up.
GLASNOW (10400) – 14.4 to 37.7 DK points. Facing NYY on the road they have a solid 120.1 wRC+. Likely not going to play any Glasnow at this price in the matchup.
ZACK GREINKE (9800) – 11.9 to 32.0 DK points. We see a good middle from him but not to many starts in the 30 point range. Arizona is also prone to blowing the same and costing him the “Win”. What do I like about Greinke is that if you remove his last start @COL he has 3 starts with 20.2 innings, only 1 ER and 18 strikeouts. Facing ATL they hold a wRC+ of 102.2 on the road. Look for him to get back on track!
<Favorite> WHEELER (9700) – This is my favorite play of the upper group. I wanted to give you some stats on each pitcher so you could decide for yourself. Wheeler has a range from -6.1 points to 38.8. He has the lowest range of all the pitchers and the highest upper end range and he is the cheapest! His Last 3 starts have been 27.6, 7.5 and 38.8 DK points. Those combine for 20.0 innings with 6 ERs and 25 strikeouts! Now he gets to face a Miami team that has a terrible wRC+ of 73.8 but on the road they drop to a terrible 61.6 which is the lowest wRC+ score of any team!
FAVORITE MID-TIER PLAY:
ODORIZZI (8800) – Coming in with a solid 2.78 ERA and 1.09 whip he holds a solid 4-2 record. His last two starts were 29.9 DK points @ NYY and then 30.8 points vs. HOU! Those two combined for 13.0 innings – 15 strikeouts and 0 ERs. Now he is facing a DET team that has a team strikeout rate jump from 21.9% at home to a massive 30.4% on the road! Gotta play some Odorizzi!
LOW END CHEAP PUNT PLAY:
HOMER BAILEY (5800) – He is the cheapest play on the board and we like him as our “punt play” if you have to go that low for a SP2 on DK. He has a range from -10 to 29.4 DK points so obviously GPP only. His last start he went 6.0 innings with 2 ERs and 4 Ks for 16.1 DK points. Not too shabby for a min priced guy. Facing Philly who has a crazy good lineup they hold a wRC+ of 112.2 at home but they are on the road (Yes I double checked this time! LoL) and they have a wRC+ that falls all the way down to 85.1, their wOBA also drops from .340 down to .300 and their OBiso score is 100 points lower. So if you are going to dip down Homer is the guy!
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