MLB Plays & Stats from CheatSheetPros!
RECAP: Wow, yesterday was a nice hit getting 10x on my buy in and missing a $4,000 top place by around 8-10 points. I spent 3 minutes on my lineups and then ran out the door to another baseball game. If I would of flipped Martin Perez for Martin it would of put me in 1st! Let’s take a look at this small slate today and see what is popping!
PITCHERS TO CONSIDER:
ROBBIE RAY (10000) –
Last Start: 30.5 DK points going 5.2, 0 ER and 11 Ks – Solid Start on the road @ TB.
DK FPPG Range: 4.9 – 30.5 over his last 5 starts.
Swinging Strike %: 13% - 3rd best on the slate today.
Matchup: PIT strikes out 5.5% more vs. LHP as it jumps from 23.0% overall to 28.5% vs. LHP. They also have a bottom 5 (for the slate) team batting average vs. LHP of .229 and .259 wOBA.
Final Thoughts: Highest priced pitcher but has a solid matchup and solid stats. It appears around 3x is his ceiling.
JOSE BERRIOS (9400) –
Last Start: 27 DK points @ TOR going 7.0 with 0 ER and only 5Ks.
DK FPPG Range: Last 5 starts have been solid with 20.5 – 27 DK points.
Swinging Strike %: 8th best on the slate at 11.8%.
Matchup: Tough LAA only strikes out a league low 15.5% of the time capping the ceiling for Berrios. Also Angels at home carry a wRC+ of a whopping 124.6 vs. only 63.1 on the road (one of the MLBs largest splits).
Final Thoughts: Due to matchup and limited K% likely fading unless you want to use for GPP. Also to note with limited data this year Berrios road xFIP to 1.40 HIGHER!
AARON NOLE (9200) –
Last Start: 26.5 DK points @ STL going 6.0, 1 ER and 7 Ks.
DK FPPG Range: 5.0 – 26.5 over his last 5.
Swinging Strike %: 5th worst at 9.6%.
Matchup: Good matchup – MIL strikes out 26.8% of the time and has a bottom 5 (for the slate) team batting average at .227 with a .314 wOBA vs. RHP.
Final Thoughts: Nola has a solid xFIP at HOME that is 3 points lower. He has a 4.57 xFIP overall with a 6.14 on the road and a whopping solid 3.14 at HOME! Solid!
MATTHEW BOYD (8800) –
Last Start: 25 DK points going 6.0 with 1 ER and 6 K vs. LAA who has a low K%.
DK FPPG Range: Lowest start of the year was 19.55 DK points and the other 6 have all been in the 20 point range. Solid Floor!
Swinging Strike %: #1 on the slate at 16.3%!
Matchup: Tough matchup vs. a sizzling hot Houston team! Houston has a low 19.1% team strikeout rate but at least it jumps to 22.1% vs. LHP which slightly helps Boyd.
Final Thoughts: Notable stat is that Houston on the road has a wRC+ that is around 30 points lower so don’t mind using Boyd tonight.
BRAD PEACOCK (8500) –
Last Start: 40.75 DK points vs. KC going 7.0, 0 ER and 12 Ks.
DK FPPG Range: -7.75 to 40.75 DK points.
Swinging Strike %: Bottom 6 at only 9.7% but I think this is going to climb!
Matchup: DET is horrible and they strike out 26% of the time vs. RHP with a .224 team batting average and .286 wOBA.
Final Thoughts: Love some Peacock tonight, priced right, solid matchup and hopefully that last game with 12 Ks was his breakout for the year putting stuff together and not a fluke game!
YUSEI KIKUCHI (7500) –
Last Start: 22.8 DK points going 7.2 innings @ NYY with 1 ER and 3 Ks.
DK FPPG Range: 6 points to 31.3 points.
Swinging Strike %: 4th worst at 9.6%.
Matchup: I’m going to consider this a tougher matchup. Oakland has a team strikeout % of 19.7% and drops even lower vs. LHP like Kuch to 17.9%. Oaklands wRC+ vs. LHP also jumps from 94.7 to 120.6.
Final Thoughts: He is super cheap so let’s see what the rookie can do! Oakland is only scoring 2.8 runs per game over the last 7 and right now don’t have a projected hitter in the lineup with over 3.5 FPPG over the last week! Kuchi!
MIKE FIERS (8000) –
Last Start: No hitter – 9.0 innings with only 6 Ks.
DK FPPG Range: -10.8 to 45 – ultimate gpp play right?
Swinging Strike %: Slate worst 8.4%.
Matchup: SEA has the 5th highest strikeout rate vs. current pitcher hand at 24.7% but Fiers doesn’t missing many bats. SEA is struggling a little scoring only 3.7 runs per game over the last 7 compared to 5.3 on the year.
Final Thoughts: I’d rather have some Kuchi. Okay I just had to stay that because it was in my head, lol. Fiers isn’t throwing a not hitter again this year so let everyone else ride that last start and go somewhere else. Lowest swinging strike rate and facing a Seattle team that could easily light him up. I’ll pass.
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