NEW YORK YANKEES (RODON) OVER TEXAS RANGERS (BRADFORD) (MAIN)
I was shocked to see this line at only (-180) and the run line (+115) for the NYY. NYY have been up and down but still rank 3rd in our power rankings and they are TOP 3 in wRC+, HRs, RBIs & ISO power hitting nearly .290 as a team over the last 2 weeks and they have scored 4+ runs in 9 of their last 10 games. NYY will face Cody Bradford who is only getting the start due to the lack of pitching options for TEX with Jon Gray and Max Scherzer hitting the IL. He made a spot appearance on July 30th for 3.2 innings giving up 4 hits and 3 runs and then against on August 3rd going 2.0 innings giving up 4 hits and 3 runs. I like Cody Bradford but a road start vs. the NYY facing Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton & Jazz Chisholm just feels like he is going to be in over his head. TEX is 24th in our power rankings hitting a lowly .210 as a team and only 3-7 over the last 10 games and will face Carlos Rodon. Rodon is not “ELITE” but he is better than average allowing 5 or less hits per start in each of his L6 and usually 1-3 runs. His HOME ERA drops from 4.81 down to 3.76 and avg allowed .260 down to .202 and will face a TEX lineup that has several games scoring only 1-2 runs.
NEW YORK METS (QUINTANA) [+110] OVER SEATTLE (MILLER) (MAIN)
I marked this game for the NYM and was going to ride it if it was (-125) or lower and then opened my DK book and found they are actually a DOG at (+110) so here we go! NYM bullpen is around a run better ranking 8th vs. 17th of Seattle and they have a WHIP that is 40% lower. SEA has the better power ranking and Arozarena has done wonders for that lineup but SEA still struggles to put runs on the board as they have only scored 4-2-2-0 runs over the L4 games and they are 5-5 over the L10 and 1-3 over the L4. NYM are 6-4 over the L10 and 3-1 over the L4 and check scoring 9-5-3-6-2-4-5 runs over the L7. Miller is solid and even better @ HOME which is reflected in the Vegas line but his last 2 starts jump out and indicate he might be falling off a tad after tossing 126 innings this year. He is coming off a 4.1 inning start vs. PHI giving up 6 hits and 4 runs and the prior was vs. the horrid CWS and he gave up 7 hits and 3 runs.. Quintana has allowed 3-1-1-5-0-0-2 ER in his L7 starts and check only 3-5-3-6-1-4-6 hits and his H/IP over those 7 starts are 0.60, 0.83, 0.60, 0.97, 0.14 and 0.57. I think this should be a (-110) game either way so I’m glad to take (+110) and our model has a +7% edge on NYM.
SECONDARY PICKS WITH THOUGHTS:
MINNY (OBER) [FIRST 5 INNINGS] OVER CLEVELAND (MCKENZIE)
This is a second tier play for me due to the MIN bullpen holding an ERA of 6.81 and CLE still holding a stronger bullpen that ranks 10th for us and has been in the top 5 almost all season. I also prefer the CLE lineup as Jose Ramirez has been RED HOT. The MINNY lineup is less than exciting outside of Royce Lewis and they struggle to score runs in most games. On a positive note MIN is 32-21 @ HOME and their wRC+ jumps from 100 to 127. In their last 10 games they are 6-4 but only played 3 home games and in those 3 they won all of them by a score of 13-7, 6-2 and 10-2 so let’s give them the HOME edge.
McKenzie was demoted to AAA after struggling through June as he allowed 5-3-4-2-5-4 earned runs in his L6 MLB starts and check 2.1, 3.0, 2.1 innings in his last 3 so he was ran out of the game early. I wanted to dig into his minor league starts and he is coming off a great start going 6 innings, 0 ERs and 11 Ks but I’m unsure if Syracuse is a quality opponent. His prior 4 starts he allowed 4-2-4-3 earned runs in only 17 innings. He is still struggling with WALKS as he has allowed 3-5-7 in his L3 minor league starts and in 7 of his last 9 MLB starts he has allowed 3+ walks.
Bailey Ober is just a freaking stud right now and has allowed 2 ER or less in 6 of his last 7 starts with a microscopic H/IP stat. His last 3 starts he has allowed only 2-1-4 hits so a total of only 7 hits and he went 7-8-7 innings allowing 2-0-2 runs. That’s pretty solid going 22 innings, allowing 7 hits and a total of 4 runs. Ober gets even better @ HOME dropping his road ERA from 4.13 down to 3.10 at home. Due to the starting pitching edge I’d attack MIN in the first 5 innings because that CLE bullpen is solid and they could climb back into the game when Ober comes out of the game.
BOSTON RED SOX (HOUCK) OVER HOUSTON ASTROS (BLANCO)
BOS is RED HOT right now and they have moved up to #1 in our power rankings and check hitting .308 as a team over the last 2 weeks and 4th in HRs, 4th in RBIs and 2nd in ISO power. The TOP 6 hitters in the projected lineup are all hitting over .280 over the last two weeks and the lowest 2 hitters are hitting .263 and .278. Comparing that to HOU really sticks out on the MLB Cheatsheet “Main Tab” as HOU has 5 hitters in the projected lineup that are batting UNDER .212 and HOU ranks 26th in our power rankings but the 29th in ISO power and 26th in RBIs tells you all you need to know. Huge hitting edge to Boston but the pitching edge leans on HOU with Blanco who has allowed 2 ER or less in 4 of 6 starts and showing a micro H/IP stats. Houck isn’t terrible as he has great stats with his 3.09 ERA and .229 avg allowed but his last 3 starts worry me so this falls into a second tier for me. He is coming off a 5 inning – 8 hits – 6 ER start on the road vs. TEX and his prior was 5 hits and 3 runs vs. NYY which isn’t terrible and then on the road in COL was 10 hits and 4 runs so throw that out the window and then he was a stud in 3 of the 4 prior so willing to give them a shot.
KANSAS CITY ROYALS (LORENZEN) OVER ST LOUIS (MIKOLAS)
This is a second tier play for me because neither pitcher is trustworthy and both bullpens could blow the game and it would not shock me. The line is low enough that I don’t mind a play on KC as they are 8th in our power rankings and check scoring 5+ runs in 7 of the last 8 games and 7-3 over the last 10 games. KC also 37-24 @ HOME and STL is 28-30 on the ROAD. STL is 3-5 over the last 8 games and 23rd in our power rankings and they have only scored 5 runs twice in the last 8 games. Lorenzen has solid BVP vs. STL and a 3.75 ERA so he's slightly above average right now. Mikolas is all over the place and unpredictable as we have seen 6 hits and 0 runs to 8 hits and 6 runs in just his last 5 starts. 4-3-2-6-0 ER in his last 5 and 8-7-7-8-6 hits. The “H/IP” stat is escalated for Mikolas and KC @ HOME as hot as those hitters have been I’d lean to a play on KC.
CHICAGO CUBS (TAILLON) OVER CHICAGO WHITE SOX (CROCHET)
This line is too low for as bad as the CWS are right now and I may just play the CHC run line at +120 for the heck of it. CHC are 6-2 over the L8 games and 5 of those 6 wins were all by the run line so I like the shot at plus money! If you’ve read our write-ups you know the deal – CWS 30th ranked bullpen that is 0-4 with an ERA near 7.00 giving up almost 2 HR per 9, blah blah blah. Offensively they also rank 30th and check 29th, 30th, 30th and 28th in wRC+, HRs, RBIs and ISO power. Plus, CWS have 5 projected hitters batting UNDER .150. We get a lower line due to Crochet getting the start who had a great yet but this guy isn’t happy and doesn’t want to pitch anymore since he didn’t get paid or traded to a contending team. His last 5 starts he has pitched 4 innings OR LESS and allowed 1-3-2-0-2 runs. Even if he comes out with 4 shutout innings that horrible bullpen will pitch the last 5 and blow the game.
PHILLIES (ZACK WHEELER) [FIRST 5 INNINGS] OVER ARIZONA (RYNE NELSON)
This line is too low for a Zack Wheeler vs. Ryne Nelson game. Wheeler has great BVP as ARI is only batting .176 through 102 team ABs with a 27% K rate. Outside of the NYY slapping him around he has been great allowing only 0-0-1-2-2-1 ER in his other 6 starts along with 2-3-3-5-7-2 hits and a micro H/IP stat. Ryne Nelson has an ERA of 5.02 and allowing a .279 average that jumps to 5.33 and .303 when he is at home. He has allowed 3+ ERs in 3 of his last 5 starts and then had two gems vs. WAS and CHC. Lean to Wheeler and the Phillies in the first 5 innings as both bullpens decent.
SAN FRANCISCO (RAY) OVER DETROIT (MAEDA) THOUGHTS
I can’t stand either of these teams so they automatically fall into a second tier play for me but I would lean to SFG run line (+110) and roll the dice. SFG are a solid 7-3 over the L10 and rank 7th in our power ranking along with TOP 6 in wRC+, HRs and ISO power. The Detroit Tiggers (yes I said Tiggers) are 3-7 over the L10 and rank 29th in our power rankings and BOTTOM 2 in wRC+, HRs and ISO power. DET has 7 projected hitters batting under .199 over the last 2 weeks and check .077, .053 and .000 for 3 of those. Chapman, Conforto and Fitzgerald are the anchors for SFG hitting .346, .333 and .309 and check combining for 48 hits, 30 runs, 13 HRs and 31 RBIs. Plus, Maeda sucks this year with an ERA of 7.26 and that is through 65.2 innings and allowing a .302 average and check allowing a .346 average on the ROAD through 31 innings. That is unreal! He won’t pitch more than 3-4 innings and that bullpen rank 22nd with an ERA over 5.00. Robby Ray came out and tossed a gem vs. LAD going 5 innings, 8 Ks and no runs and then OAK tagged him for 7 hits and 4 runs in only 4.1 innings. His 3rd and most recent start was 5.0 innings vs. CIN with 9 Ks, 3 hits and 2 ER.
ROUND ROBIN – TAKING THE BIGGEST ODDS LOOKING FOR THE BEST PAYOUT:
NYY (-1.5)
NYM (+110)
BOSTON MONEY LINE
KANSAS CITY MONEY LINE
CUBS (-1.5)
SAN FRAN (-1.5)
PHILLIES (FIRST 5 -0.5)
PARLAY PAYS: +11500 AND WITH THE DK BOOST +17183
So, this is basically 115:1 odds and 171:1 with the DK boost for the SWEEP and I am going to Round Robin the smaller legs.
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