QUICK NEWS & NOTES:
Make sure to check out the College Football Betting Sheet that is in a PDF format. I haven't got much feedback but loved it on my mobile device digging through games. Need some people to tell me they like it to keep it going forward. I also posted a PDF version the "PRIZE PICKS" MLB sheet and the "MLB Betting Board" today in the FREE group to see if people like or not.
(3) College Football Plays are posted on the website along with my favorite College "Prize Pick". Might be adding some more as the day goes on.
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MLB SPORTS BETTING PICKS:
MLB PLAYER PROPS - I wanted to break this out and show you the screen shots of things that jump out at me when I'm digging into Player Props OR Prize Picks.
Look at the screen shot above and see if you can find some good PITCHER K props, I focus on sorting my AVERAGE STRIKEOUTS per game and then comparing that to the OPP K% which is pulled from the last two weeks. When you have some scroll down and I'll show you what jumps out at me.
KODAI SENGA - He has the best matchup today vs. MIN who has held the highest team strikeout rate pretty much all year. You can see the other pitchers around him have been on fire but Snell is facing a HOU team with the 3rd lowest K%, Keller the 5th lowest K% and Canning the 2nd lowest K% and then Senga is facing a team ranked 30th with a K% of 27%. His K prop on DK is 6.5 strikeouts which is a good line but would lean over as he should be able to put up 7. I'm going to approach this with a same game parlay and get that number down to 5+ or 6+.
EURY PEREZ - This one takes a little more digging but what jumps out is the 7-10-7-7 in 4 of his last 6 starts and facing a team with the 21st highest K%. Looking at his "game logs" we see that one of those starts with only 5 strikeouts was against WAS but if you've followed the sheet you know WAS has one of the lowest team K% and they don't strikeout much so 5 is a HUGE number for them.
In the screen show below we also see that he has a solid K9 rate HOME and AWAY so we are not worried about the splits.
KODAI SENGA OVER 6.5 STRIKEOUTS + EURY PEREZ OVER 6.5 STRIKEOUTS pays a whopping +260 if you want to go that route.
SAME GAME PARLAY - SAFER ACTION (DK): I prefer to take a safer route with less risk and go Eury Perez 5+ strikeouts with MIA over 0.5 total runs and mix that with Kodai Senga 6+ strikeouts and NYM over 0.5 runs. These together is (-125) more of a normal wager but love putting these together with any other bets. OPTIONAL: Add in the DET first 5 innings -0.5 runs and it takes this up to +255!
WANT TO LOOK AT SOME MORE PROPS?
The next favorite prop I like is "Pitching Outs" and my key number I'm looking for is pitchers who toss 18+ outs on a consistent basis and trying to find a 17.5 line on DK. I would stay away from 18.5 because that is the key number where they can pull them out based on pitch count.
KODAI SENGA - He is the top option with 21, 23, 21, 18, 18, 20 and 18 pitching outs going over 17.5 7 games in a row. Now let's check DK.
DK has him listed at 17.5 which is what we are looking for and the line is ONLY -120 which is GREAT! Typically I see this -150 to -190 with they are hitting at a high clip so this is definitely on the radar for me today. KODAI SENGA OVER 17.5 PITCHING OUTS -120
KYLE BRADISH THOUGHTS - He also has a 17.5 line with a 6-1 "OVER" run and even at +115 make the enticing! BOS has some decent BVP so it's a little risky but I don't mind it. I prefer the BAL team bet because if Bradish gets in trouble and gets pulled they have a great bullpen that could lock down the game.
PAUL BLACKBURN OVER 15.5 PITCHING OUTS (+120) - This one is also very tempting at 15.5 as you can see that he typically tosses about 6.0 innings with a few 5 inning games sprinkled in. This is also (+120) which I LOVE PLUS MONEY! If you dig into his game logs you can see he has 5, 6, 6, 7, 5.2, 6 and 6 innings over recent starts giving him a 6-1 "OVER" and we are getting plus money against a TEX team that is struggling right now? Why not.
PITCHERS TO RECORD A WIN PROPS:
If you like a team to WIN that has a solid pitcher with a good bullpen backing them (such as BAL... cough cough) then sometimes you can get better odds on the pitcher to record a win than taking the moneyline. I LOVE LOVE LOVE the Win Chart on the pitchers tab as you can see over the L7 starts if they recorded a WIN, LOSS or no decision and start comparing these to the matchups, prior performances, etc.
Here are some of the plays that would jump out at me. In the Facebook chat on the premium group we always discuss round robin strategy. This is basically taking (5) legs that are PLUS MONEY and doing 3 team round robins and then a unit on the 5-0 SWEEP which is usually a BIG TICKET. To get these plus money legs pitchers to record a WIN is a good one to target.
First, make sure the pitcher is going to record enough pitching outs so they need 5 innings or 15 pitching outs so avoid pitchers that are tossing 12-14 more than 50% of the time as you want guys that are 15-18 on a consistent bases. I prefer guys with good bullpen advantages and going up against weak or struggling teams with bad bullpens.
KYLE BRADISH TO RECORD A WIN AT (+165) jumps out at me on this board. He has recorded a win in 3 straight starts and he is going up against a BOS team that is ranked 25th in our power rankings. This is a line we only have to win 38% of the time to be profitable. The opposing pitcher is pretty decent but BAL is HOT right now and Boston has a horrific bullpen while BAL sits with one of the top bullpens.
Here are the 3 bets you could make if you like BAL today. Yes, I love the game line (-122) but why would you bet FIRST 5 RUN LINE +105 when you can get KYLE BRADISH WIN (+165)? The bullpen advantage is 2nd vs. 28th so if Bradish is leading after the 5th inning it's HIGHLY LIKELY that bullpen will lock down that game and record the win for him. I mean anything can happen but with a large bullpen advantage and line going from +105 to +165 I want the bigger payday as the risk is not that much more.
If you read this article and you are completely lost then here is a simple parlay for you:
Kodai Senga over 17.5 pitching outs + Paul Blackburn over 15.5 P/O +305
Good Luck,
Haze!
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