QUICK NEWS & NOTES:
I'm on vacation for the next 7 days so I'll continue to have several plays up and we will continue to eat on this massive winning streak! Yesterday was a MONSTER day sweeping the betting card and cashing all our parlays! I wrote up 5-6 plays below that didn't make my "TOP PLAYS" but wanted to share as there is some valuable information in the write ups that might help your decision. Two of the games that I loved today I wrote up for the premium plays!
PREMIUM MLB PICKS > 3-0 YESTERDAY w/ a (+900) PARLAY WINNER!
PREMIUM MLB PICKS > 17-6 (74%) RUN AND SEVERAL OF THOSE WERE DOGS!
(2) MEMBER PICKS POSTED TODAY ON THE WEBSITE + FACEBOOK GROUP + FACEBOOK CHAT
PLAYS THAT JUMP OUT AT ME AND MY THOUGHTS:
CAN CINCY BOUNCE BACK AFTER 3 STRAIGHT LOSSES?
Despite 3 straight losses and playing their 3rd road game in a row I think they have a shot to win today as a dog. CIN ranks 2nd in our custom power rankings and they are still TOP 3 in HRs, RBIs and ISO power. LHP Andrew Abbott will take the mound for Cincy today and he is having a solid season. His last start he gave up 7H / 5ER to a weak MIA team and only lasted 3.1 innings but his prior 6 starts he has only allowed 0,1,2,2,3,1 ERs so we will cut him some slack. WAS has won 4 of their last 5 games but they have struggled vs. LHP as we see their wRC+ drop from 97 to 80 and ISO power from .144 down to .102. RHP Jake Irvin will be on the hill for the Nationals today and on the surface he has great stats with his 3.49 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and allowing a .230 AVG but his last 2 starts are cause for concern. His last two starts have combined for only 10.0 total innings, allowed 18 hits and 12 earned runs and walked 5 batters in those 10 innings. Prior to those two he had solid starts in 4 of his previous 5 and it’s notable those two were on the ROAD and he is at HOME today but definitely something we need to watch.
PIRATES STILL A DOG AFTER GOING 8-1 OVER LAST 9?
Shocked to see PIT as a dog today after going 8-1 over the last 9 and winning 6 straight games. This features our 7th and 13th power rated teams so they can both put some runs on the board. PHI has dropped 3 in a row and 4 of the last 5 and what happened to that bullpen? PHI bullpen falls to 30th for us with an 0-2 record and 7.25 ERA over the last two weeks and check allowing almost 3 HRs per 9 which is MLB’s worst. PIT sitting solid with he 9th best bullpen at 4-1 with a 3.32 ERA over the last two weeks and their HR per 9 is only 0.47. RHP Tyler Phillips will get the start for PHI and it will be his 3rd start. His first start was July 7th and went 3.0 innings, 3 hits and 1 ER with 7 Ks so that was pretty solid. His last start was against OAK and went 6.0 innings giving up 6 hits and 4 ERs. He hasn’t walked a batter in his 10 innings so that’s a plus for his command but giving up 3 HRs in those 10 is not. LHP Marco Gonzales will be on the hill for the Pirates with his 2.45 ERA through 22.0 IP and a solid bullpen behind him. Marco has only allowed 1,2,2,1 ER in his 4 starts this year and pitched 5,6,6,5 innings so that’s pretty solid. I like PHI as a team but outside of the red hot Trea Turner they are in a slump with a minor league pitcher and struggling bullpen on the mound so shocked to see PIT open as a DOG!
CAN ATLANTA CONTINUE TO POUND MIKOLAS?
There could be fireworks today in Atlanta so I’d lean OVER 8.5 total runs but it’s not on my betting card right now. Both of these teams rank 9th and 14th in our power rankings and they are 3rd and 7th in HRs over the last 2 weeks. Atlanta is hitting a WHOPPING (.342) vs. Mikolas through 79 Abs and check 8 HOME RUNS! Six of the 9 projected hitters in the lineup have at least 1 HR vs. Mikolas and 6 hitters have above average ISO power vs. PH. Could Marcell Ozuna hit his 6th BOMB in the last 2 weeks? He has the highest custom ALGO grade in that lineup and a .304 ISO power vs. RHP. Miles Mikolas has been better on the ROAD than at HOME so that’s a plus for him but the Braves have faced him several times with success so not worried about the split. Mikolas has allowed 6,0,2,9,4 ERs so we can see he is all over the place. What I focus on is the HITS per Innings pitched and if a pitcher is allowing a HIT per INNING they will get into trouble! His last start he allowed 8 hits in 5.1 innings, then 6 hits in 6.1 innings, 5 hits in 6 innings, 12 hits in 4.1 innings, etc. So that is a pitcher I’d take a shot going after today. Not a fan of Schwelley for ATL but he is putting up average stats with a solid HOME split where his ERA drops from 5.16 on the road down to 3.68 and his K9 skyrockets from 6.4 to 10.2 and he has only allowed 1 ER in each of his last 2 starts. It’s notable that he did face this STL team on the road 4 starts prior and gave up 8 hits and 4 ERs.
WILL ARIZONA CONTINUE TO STAY HOT?
This one didn’t make the cut for my top plays but I lean on Arizona here. ARI is a solid 6-1 over L7 and rank 12th in our power rankings while the Cubbies are 1-4 over the last 5. Both bullpens are solid and both pitchers are solid so that wasn’t enough of an edge to make the cut for my picks but ARI opened as a slight dog and they should be a slight favorite based on our model. Shota started off red hot and then hit a skid before having a solid start last time out going 6 shutout innings. The prior 3 starts he allowed 3,3,10 ERs so that is cause for concern and his last 3 HOME starts he has allowed 6H/3ER and 11H/10ERs. Brandon Pfaadt has only allowed 0,1,1 ER in his last 3 starts and is holding down a 3.97 ERA. Lean to ‘Zona as a slight dog.
KEEP BETTING COLORADO IN COLORADO AND GETTING PLUS MONEY!
COL is horrible on the road where they are 14-36 but at HOME they are a better 22-25 and just seem to play better in the altitude. COL has now W3 straight games and SFG can’t pull away from anyone as they are 3-7 over the last 10 games and 2 of those 3 wins were only by 1 run and check scoring only 3,3,3,2,7,3 runs over the last 5. Neither pitcher is great, both bullpens are in the bottom 6 with ERA’s well over 5 and WHIPs above average so take a shot a plus money if you want action here.
HOUSTON SHOULD WIN AS A SLIGHT DOG, RIGHT?
HOU is 6-2 over the last 8 while SEA is 0-5 over the last 5 scoring only 2,0,2,1,5 runs. This didn’t make my top plays as both teams are only 20th and 26th in our power rankings. I am leaning on HOU here as a slight dog as they have a bullpen edge and better lineup. Vegas opened with SEA as a 51% edge to win and our model has this at HOU 54% so basically saying the wrong team is favored. Neither lineup is fire right now as they both have several cold hitters but can’t lay money with Seattle and a bullpen that’s 0-4. Smallest of edges to Houston.
PLAYER PROP TIPS:
If you are into Player Props, Same Game Parlays or Prize Picks we have great tools on our MLB Cheatsheets! Here you can see the pitchers strikeout log over their last 7 starts next to the DK K-Prop line, Hit percentage and also the opponent teams K% over the last two weeks so see if they have an easy matchup or tough matchup. On the right you can see the EARNED RUNS allowed over their last 7 starts, DK ER line and Hit% and we put our custom power ranking in "( )" so you can get an idea of the matchup strength!
We also show you HITS ALLOWED, PITCHING OUTS and the "To Record a Win" pitcher props in other columns and you can compare the pitchers last 7 starts without digging up all their game logs.
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