NBA Plays & Stats for (March 6th, 2020) from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Nothing to report so let’s get started with the awesomeness!
PLAYERS TO CONSIDER:
ARON BAYNES –Yes this will be chalky with DeAndre Ayton out and he is priced at 4900 on FD but only 3000 on DK. He is projected to play 26 minutes and in 12.8 min/game he was putting up 4.4x value so if he gets the 26 he should easily crush value. DVP of 1.11 is solid so an easy play for tonight. Cash or GPP.
TERRANCE ROSS – I was shocked to see his stats today when putting together the sheet. In 31.8 min/game over the L4 he is only putting up 6.8x value. Only 5700 on DK is cheap enough to work in with some studs and a team implied total of 118. So keep in mind on DK we need 5x value so at 5700 we need 28.5 DKPs for value, in his last 4 games he has 38.5, 34.25, 31.5 and 51.25 DKP. All of those easily going into the 6x~ish range and higher. Cash or GPP.
NAZ REID –Orlando has been giving up 56.3 DKP to the C position over the last two weeks and that is about 22% of the total points they allow. Naz is projected to play around 25-27 minutes tonight and in his last two games he has 25 and 27 minutes putting up 41.25 and 46.5 DKP and priced at only 5800 on DK. His price is still too cheap. Cash or GPP.
T.J. McConnell– When I see other players that are not on my radar popping up I want to dig in further. When TJM popped up I started to look and there is a good chance that Victor Ola & Brogdon don’t play tonight and if that is the case TJM is looking at another 30 minutes of action. He is coming off 30 minutes @ MIL and put up 30 DKP and is is priced at only 4000 on DK. Watch for the scratches and he could be an easy value play. Cash or GPP if he moves into starting line with No Dipo & Brogdon.
SHAQUILLE HARRISON – Zach LaVine is on the shelf tonight to Shaq should get another start. He is up and down so there is some risk with rostering him. 3 games ago he started and played 13 minutes for 9.75 DKP, 2 games ago he started and only played 16 minutes for 11.5 DKP, last game he started and played a nice 29 minutes for 29.5 DKP. Priced at 3500 there is some risk so I’m looking for him in GPPs but you can’t punt 8x-9x upside. GPP Only as he has a tough DVP spot.
NIKOLA VUCEVIC – So the first thing I do is open the NBA sheet and look at the DVP tab and see if there are any players getting 23%+ of the fantasy points, with large amounts allowed and also in a “+” matchup. ORL is facing MIN who is giving up the most FP per game as a team of 257.8 DKP (highest on slate) and they are giving up 59.8 DKP to the C position and that is 23.2% of the total points allowed. Vucevic is priced at 8900 tonight and has broke 50 DKP in 3 of his last 4 games with 56, 51.25 and 50. He should be a solid cash game player with a 45-50 DKP floor for 5x-5.5x value and might push 6x. Aaron Gordon is also in a good spot vs. MIN and usually when Gordon goes off Vucevic doesn’t. So don’t play those guys together but if you run multiple lines put one guy in each lineup. Gordon is coming off two games of 36 minutes and only 24 and 35 DKP so his 8600 price tag seems inflated. But prior to that he has at 56.75, 57 and 53.5 DKP. Cash Only but carries some risk with Aaron Gordon back.
CHRIS CHIOZZA –So I always do some weird calculations in the back ground and this guy jumped out. So he is projected for 0 points but somewhere between 12-20 minutes and that just makes no sense. He was playing <9 minutes a game but seeing a little action and then on March 3rd and 4th he played 21 and 24 minutes and put up 22.25 and 21.25 DKPs and is right around a FPPM player. He is min priced on DK at 3000 so if he plays 15 minutes and puts up 15 points he will hit value for a punt position. There is a correlation with Chiozza and Dinwiddie so don’t put them in the same lineup and put them in different lines if you are trying to edge the field. In the last two games where Chiozza put up 21+ DKP Dinwiddie ony had 18.5 and 29.75 to go way under value. In the 2 games before that when Chiozza was playing <10 minutes Dinwiddie had 49 and 49.75 DKPs. Leverage GPP Punt Only.
LUKA DONCIC + KRISTAPS PORZINGIS – If you can afford 11300 and 9300 on DK these guys go well together. Looking back at their side by side numbers they usually both go BOOM or BUST at the same time. Last time out Porzingis put up 66.5 DKP and Luka 73.25. If you want a solid cash core and can afford it with the value opening up I don’t mind this at all. GPP or Cash Building Blocks.
MINNESOTA PLAYERS – Someone in the chat the other day said, “I just keep stacking MIN and cashing night in and night out.” So I started to look and these guys are cheap, they don’t play defense and have multiple players crushing value. They are scoring 115 PPG and allowing 118 PPG over their last 3 and playing at the 7thhighest pace at 107.6. Orlando is a tough matchup but they have an offensive efficiency of 1.19 over the L3 games giving hope to another high scoring affair. I would avoid D’Angelo Russell at 8800 as he hasn’t been doing much with 3 games in a row under 40.75 DKPs. But Naz Reid and James Johnson have been smashing in the C spots, Juan Hernangomez has put up a solid 26, 35, 33 and 50 DKP at only 5.5k so we have some guys that we can stack up and do really well.
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