NFL "DFS" Stacks, NFL Sports Betting Picks and a couple thoughts on some Prize Pick lines! My goal is not to give you exact plays or exact lineups but to open you up to the CheatSheets and how to use them and find your own STACKS, Prize Picks and Sports Bets. My main focus right now is betting the "Same Game Parlays" on Draftkings as those things are extremely entertaining. I also am going back to the Tic-Tac-Bingo Prop board we did last year. I will do my best to write that up again this year and go over some plays.
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NFL "Daily Fantasy Stacks" for Week 1
First, I'm going to head over to the "Main" tab and filter out the QB's and see how is projected for the best value compared to the Vegas projected team total. Sam Howell at (4900) is just crazy cheap as we never find a starting QB priced sub 5K. The second guy I'm going to focus on is Tua Tagovailoa at (6700) as he has a massive ceiling and that game could be a shootout. I mean, how long before Tua gets concussed and is knocked out a few games. I don't mind a shot on Anthony Richardson at (5600) with his rushing upside and I think he will win someone a Milly at some point this year.
Going over to the "DFS Stacks" tab I'm going to filter out WAS and see how the stacks with Sam Howell look. For this screen shot I sorted by highest projected stack as I'm not worried about value or price. Stack costs range from 10,900 up to 22,600 for various 3 man stacks on the weekend. The obvious and highest projected stack is Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson. Terry McLaurin is Q so make sure he's a go if you run this stack.
Next, I want to plus this into DK and see how much money I have left over. I always figure a random 3000 TE and a 2800 DEF as that gives you room to move up or down as needed. Looking at this lineup I have almost 7000 per player to fill in the gaps and that is a GREAT price. Anything in the 5000's you have to find value and the stack is expensive and anything around 7000 you have plenty of room and that's usually a cheap stack.
These are the RB's in that range and you can easily fit (3) of them into your lineup and mix and match. Now that is starting to become a fun lineup that we can play with!
MIAMI is going to be expensive with Tyreek Hill and Waddle and comes in a 22000 for the 3 man stack. So the lineup start will look something like this:
This is going to leave us only 5500 average per play so it really thins out our options at this point.
Here are the RB options in this range if you are looking at putting 3 together, there is a cliff dropoff but still don't mind players like Cam Akers, Pierce, Miles Sanders, White, Mostert and Herbert.
INDY stacks are dirt cheap coming in with a range of 11,600 to 15,600 but taking a QB that is likely to run doesn't make sense to stack 2 pass catches so I would run Anthony Richardson alone or possible with 1 pass catcher until we see how he looks after Week 1.
Here is a preview of the new DFS STACKS tab for 2023 and some of the CHEAPEST and HIGHEST priced stacks on the weekend.
CHEAPEST STACKS:
EXPENSIVE HIGH END STACKS:
DVP BREAKDOWN FROM LAST SEASON:
SPORTS BETTING PICK: DALLAS COWBOYS (-3) OVER NY GIANTS
Here you can see that we have a projected score of: DALLAS 26 vs. NYG 23 which falls right around the Vegas line. The Dallas defense is revamped this year and a top 3 unit for me while the NYG "D" is still suspect. With Tony Pollard and CeeDee Lamb I think the Dallas "O" gets off to a hot start and locks this one down. Lay the FG with Dallas!
OTHER GAMES TO CONSIDER DESPITE NO STATS AND LIGHT MODEL PROJECTIONS TO START WEEK 1:
PHILLY (-4) OVER NEW ENGLAND
Everyone is on New England and even the Pointwise Red Sheet has NE has their top play on the red sheet but I'm going EAGLES. NE was 8-9 last year and 7-9 ATS and only 3-5 at home. JuJu Smith-Shuster, DeVante Parker and Kendrick Bourne aren't great additions for Mac Jones but we should see Rhamondre ball out this year (at least I hope!). NE comes in with the 23rd "O" and 5th rated "D". PHI comes in with the 3rd best "O" and "D" to start the season even though I feel like they are more of the to defensive unit right now. PHI was 15-3 last year but only 2-6 ATS on the road so watch out! PHI has most of the same offensive weapons from last year and they had the 3rd most offensive yards per game with 385.8.
BALTIMORE (-9) OVER HOUSTON
Baltimore could wreck Houston this week but it's Week 1 so who knows! BAL comes in at 9th and 8th on "O" and "D". Lamar Jackson finally got paid and has the most weapons he has ever seen around him. Houston picked up some key draft picks but they are still building and come in ranked 31st "O" and 28th "D". I'm excited to see C.J. Stroud and what he can do but Nico Collins, Robert Woods and Noah Brown are hardly WRs that scare me. I'd rather lay the points with Baltimore playing @ HOME. This is also one game that our model has a significantly different projected line as we have BAL (-12.5) vs. (-9) over Vegas with a projected score of 28-15. R-A-V-E-N-S!
SAN FRAN (-2) OVER PITTSBURGH
This is probably a bad pick taking a road favorite with a QB that has looked horrible in pre-season but that DEFENSE is one of the top units in the NFL. Last year Pittsburgh was 26th in scoring offense and 23rd in total offense and against this DEFENSE I'll take my shot with CMC and these 49'ers!
WASHINGTON (-6) OVER ARIZONA
I think WAS comes out strong and wins this by 7, somewhere around 21-13. WAS playing at home and Sam Howell gets a chance to show off what he can do. That WAS defense comes in around 10th to start the season vs. an ARI team that was 4-13 last year and ranks 27th on offense and 26th on defense with Dobbs starting at QB. Can't back Zona and excited to see what Howell can do!
PRIZE PICKS FOR SUNDAY:
I have J.K. Dobbins projected for 78.1 rushing yards and a 49% chance of scoring a touchdown. I'm good taking his "Fantasy Score" or over 59.5 "Rushing Yards". BAL is a huge favorite in this game so Dobbins should be running out the clock in the 2nd half if things go as expected.
I have Miles Sanders projected for 16 rushing attempts and 68.1 rushing yards against a suspect ATL defense so I'm going over the 55.5 rushing yards.
I love Sam Howell and Terry McLaurin isn't likely 100% so Jahan Dotson could smash this 42.5 receiving yard mark.
How fun do these look? Stud Combos for days!
Good Luck in Week 1,
Haze!
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