QUICK NEWS & NOTES:
I'm dropping the NFL article a day early this week because the Prize Pick lines are already starting to move so wanted to get them out. There are TONS of great SGP options this week. I'm going to be out of state Sat/Sun so I have to get all my bets in on Friday so I'll likely be posting my SGP tickets as I have some good ones ready to go.
NEW on NFL CheatSheet: PrizePicks tab is back, Stack Score finder and the Scoreboard tab. We needed some stats and added this in so the people playing DFS, Props or Betting has another tool to use.
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DAILY FANTASY PICKS:
NEW this week we added a "STACK SCORE" on our Daily Fantasy Stack finder! I'd sort this high to low and look at any stack score 80 and above to start your research. You can see on the early week release it's loaded with MIN players and rightfully so as this game has a 54.5 total and Kirk Cousins is passing at the highest clip in the NFL.
MINNY - You can stack Cousins with any of his (2) pass catchers: Jefferson, Hockenson, Addison or Osborn. There is a wide range of salaries so you can make this stack work with almost any combo of players.
LAS VEGAS - Jimmy G was fire when he had Jakobi Myers and Adams running all over the field and then struggled last week without Myers. If Jakobi returns this week I like those 3 for a combo stack.
MIAMI - If you want to stack Miami @ home I don't mind it but if you want to be different I would stack with Waddle and leave off Tyreek Hill. Tyreek Hill will be owned in 80-90% of Miami stacks and should draw a bunch of attention. They won't shut him down but they can slow him down enough to keep him out of the GPP winning lineup. That also gives Jaylen Waddle (Q) a dream matchup and a chance for your to have a "different" Miami stack.
HOUSTON - Why not take a shot on a team that is always in a negative game script and has a QB with 40+ pass attempts in each of his first two games? Nico Collins and Tank Dell is a super cheap stack coming in at only 14,200 for the QB+WR+WR combo. Compare that to a Cousins/Jefferson/Hockenson that is 22,700.
Here is a list of the STACKS that I like to start the week.
Here are a couple lineup STARTERS to get your juices flowing!
DVP AFTER 2 WEEKS OF NFL:
TOP 5 ALGO PLAYS FOR THE WEEK PER POSITION:
PLAYER PROPS & PRIZE PICK PLAYS that jump out:
KIRK COUSINS OVER 283.5 PASSING YARDS. You'll see my "SGPs" this week with Cousins pass attempts/completions and yardages. MIN is passing at the highest clip in the NFL at 78% and they are 2nd in passing yards per game! We saw Tua throw for 466 passing yards against the Chargers in week 1. OVER is the only way to go and I freaking LOVE IT!
You can see this screen shot from the NFL Cheatsheet and see how game logs from Week 1 and Week 2 and tossing for 344 and 364 yards is INSANE!
CEEDEE LAMB OVER 72.5 is 2-0 for the "OVER" this season with 77 and 143 yards. He is the clear WR-1 and gobbling up all the targets he can handle and it will continue. The screen show below is from our "Prize Picks" tab on the NFL CheatSheet where you can see Prize Picks lines vs. Projections and game logs/hit rates.
NICO COLLINS OVER 55.5 YARDS - 3 guys are grabbing all the targets in HOU and Nico Collins is one of them with 11 and 9 in the first two weeks. He has turned in the most production with 226 yards and a touchdown. You can see he has 80 and 146 yards which is leaning the game in wide out production. HOU has allowed 25 and 31 points in the first two weeks so they are always in a negative game script and check Stroud with 44 and 47 passing attempts which is amongst the highest in the NFL.
CALVIN RIDLEY -OR- CHRISTIAN KIRK WILL OVER OVER ON THEIR RECEIVING YARDS - In Week 1 it was Ridley with 11 targets, 8 grabs for 101 yards and Kirk had a lonely 3 targets. Then it flipped in Week 2 and Kirk went for 11 grabs and 110 yards on 14 targets. If you are playing DFS I would run each of these guys in a different lineup because one of them will POP!
BIJAN ROBINSON OVER 70.5 RUSHING YARDS - Love the usage bump in Week 2 with 19 RUSHING ATTEMPTS plus 5 TARGETS and he turned that in for 124 rushing yards and 48 receiving yards. If you can get FANTASY SCORE (not out yet) I'd go that route but at this point I like his OVERS!
KEENAN ALLEN OVER 74.5 RECEIVING YARDS - Now this line was 72.5 this morning when I was writing these down so it's already moved up 2 yards. KA has 9 and 10 targets through two weeks and has turned those into 14 grabs for 187 total yards leading the team. Mike Williams is a bit of a wild card as he only had 5 targets in week 1 and then 13 in week 2 but KA is the consistent wide out we can count on. Love him in his matchup against MIN with a 54.5 game total and two teams that are passing at a high clip. Joshua Kelley looked awful last week and it doesn't seem like Ekeler will return so load up on Allen!
JUSTIN JEFFERSON OVER 99.5 RECEIVING YARDS - Why not just stack up this game. I typically try to stay away from lines this high but Jefferson has been over this number by 50% or more in each of the first two week so why not again!
CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY OVER 79.5 RUSHING YARDS - The word is San Fran is going to rotate in more Eli Mitchell to conserve some CMC but he is so electric and with 116 and 152 rushing yards I'll gladly take a shot at 80+ rushing yards. His receiving yard stats are down but might bump if Aiyuk is out this week.
Here is a copy of my first 6 legger on Prize Picks this week. I prefer "Fantasy Score" as there are more outs but I always get a few early cards in. I'll run it again and flip out CMC for Allen and give that a go. But on Prize Picks 6 of 6 pays 25:1 to $10 pays $250, etc.
Here is a good shot at a same game parlay on DK for just over +16 units of payout. I posted my big round robin with 1 unit additional on each leg on the website and in the chat group.
You can pivot any of these legs UP to get a higher payout as Kirk Cousins should go 300+ or 325+ and Jefferson should get 100+. Nico Collins you could take to 75+ and Puka could go 100+ with a Stafford 250+ or 275+.
Use any legs you want and mix and match!
SPORTS BETTING PICKS:
DALLAS COWBOYS OVER ARIZONA CARDINALS
CHEATSHEETPROS MODEL: DALLAS 29 VS. ARIZONA 9
Line opened at -10.5 and now -12 with 91% of the early cash on the Cowboys. Dallas has been great for us this year and they hold the #1 defense in the NFL and they are coming off 40-0 and 30-10 wins. Arizona has been solid with a 2-0 ATS record but that collapse last week was brutal. They were up 20-0 at halftime over the NYG and then they were outscored 31-8 in the 2H losing the game 31-28. Cowboys completely demolished the NYG in their opener holding them to 0 points, 14 first downs and only 171 total yards. With ARI allowing 20 and 31 points in their first 2 games and Dallas holding opponents to 0 and 10 points laying the points is the only way to go! COWBOYS!
LA RAMS OVER CINCY BENGALS
CHEATSHEETPROS MODEL: RAMS 26 VS. CINCY 17
Line opened at CIN (-7) and with the news that Joe Burrow might not play this week it quickly got bought down to CIN (-2.5). Rams have been terrific and frankly I was shocked to see them hang with San Fran last week. Rams opened up on the road vs. SEATTLE and won 30-13 with a 27-13 first down edge and 426-180 total yard edge and then came back last week and hung with San Fran. At halftime it was 17-17 and the Rams held a 28-21 first down edge with a slight 386-365 total yard edge but ultimately lost the turnover battle 0-2. CINCY off to an 0-2 start losing 24-3 vs. CLE and then 27-24 to BAL last week. In the game last week they had a 26-19 first down deficit and a 415-282 yard deficit and only ran 57 total plays. After 2 games CINCY is 32nd on offensive yards per game and 28th in defensive yards allowed. Rams are quite decent as they are 3rd in offensive yards per game and allow the 6th least amount of yards allowed per game. RAMS!
3 TEAM – 10 POINT TEASER – 1 UNIT
DALLAS (-12) TO (-2)
KANSAS CITY (-12.5) TO (-2.5)
MINNY/LAC OVER 54 DOWN TO OVER 44
Kansas City has a great defense that is allowing the 13th least amount of yards per game at only 319.5. Chicago ranks 30th on “O” and 26th on “D” and with KC @ home they should easily be able to win this game. We also have Chris Jones and Travis Kelce back and Kelce has another game under his belt. Chicago allowed 38 points to the Packers with a rookie QB and then a whopping 27 points to Baker Mayfield and the Bucs. Patrick Mahomes should feast in this spot and that defense should be able to limit the Bears who are 27th in offensive yards per game!
These two teams pass at the 1st and 18th highest rates in the NFL and they put up the 2nd and 11th most “passing yards” per game. We saw what Tua did to LAC in week 1 putting up 36 points and throwing for over 400 yards. Our model has this game at 28-27 and the Vegas line is 54 so it’s leaning to the over by a hair but love it teased down to 44-46.
LEANS AND THOUGHTS ON OTHER GAMES:
INDY COLTS (+8) – Baltimore beat up on HOU in W1 but then let the struggling Bengals come back and only won that game 27-24. When Anthony Richardson went out of the game Gardner Minshew came in and was 19 of 23 (82%) for 171 yards and a touchdown. Plus Zack Moss came out with 18 carries for 88 yards and a score. Our model has this at BAL (-5) so I’d lean to taking the points.
MIAMI DOLPHINS (-6) – Our model does not like this one as we have MIA (-3) so this fell down into the “leans” column. Miami @ Home should thrive and these Dolphins have put up 36 points in W1 and then 24 points last week against a NE team that slowed the game down. Denver started off great last week before giving up 3 touchdowns in the 2H to lose the game 35-33 to Sam Howell. However, they did keep that game close and 6 is a lot of points so I would lean to laying it at this point in the week.
THANK YOU FOR READING & GOOD LUCK!
HAZE
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