NFL Week 4 Breakdown for BETTING PICKS, DFS STACKS & PLAYER PROPS!
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BETTING PICKS
(NOTE: These are not all of the same picks that I posted on the website and in our Facebook chat for our premium group picks but they are games that I am considering.)
CAROLINA (+4.5) OVER CINCY
Andy Dalton got the start last week and threw for over 300 yars and 3 TDs on his way to crushing the Raiders in epic fashion. Diontae Johnson and Chubba Hubbard also had big days. Carolina also held a 24-20 FD edge and 437-331 total yard edge without a single turnover. Now looking at the screen shot above from our NFL cheatsheet you see Vegas has a (-4.5) spread on Cincy and our model has a (-4) spread for Cincy but you have to understand the first two games for Carolina were awful with Bryce Young under center. With Andy Dalton playing only one of the 3 games our model is right on the Vegas spread but if you figured this with just the Andy Dalton stats it would be closer to a pick'em so grab the (+4.5).
ARIZONA (-3.5) OVER WASHINGTON (CONSIDER THE BUYING DOWN TO -3)
This pick was not on my card and is not on my favorite 4 that I posted on the website but I can't give away everything so I'm hitting some outside picks that I still like! This year ARI has struggled vs. tough defenses in Buffalo and Detroit but playing the lackluster Rams they put up a 41-10 "WIN" and now they get another lackluster defense. WAS has looked much better on "OFF" but they have allowed 37, 18 and 33 points this season with a YPP (yard per point) of 12.9 which is the 25th worst in the NFL and they even have a game against the horrible Giants. In the screen shot above you see that our model has this game projected with Arizona by 6 points with a score of 27-21. I think it goes way over that number but like Arizona to get the WIN with a couple key stops on defense.
BUFFALO / BALTIMORE OVER 46.0 TOTAL POINTS
Our model has this game with 51.0 total points giving us an edge of +5 points. Buffalo is 3-0 putting up 34, 31 and 47 points but Baltimore will be the toughtest "DEF" they have faced this season. The Baltimore defense looks decent but they have allowed 27, 26 and 25 points in their 3 games and their defensive YPP ranks 24th so not worried about the Bills getting shut down with the 77% Red Zone TD% (2nd in the NFL). Baltimore is playing at home and needs another WIN because fallin to 1-3 would be brutal for them. They also hold the 2nd best rushing "OFF" with 203.3 yards per game and they are 1st in offensive yards per game at 430. The hot take here is Baltimore rushing game will be able to move the ball against Buffalo as they are allowing 4.7 yards per rush (22nd) so Lamar Jackson should take this game under his wing and run all over them.
PLAYER PROPS
LAMAR JACKSON OVER 58.5 RUSHING YARDS
If you read the Baltimore/Buffalo write up then you get this one and it doesn't require explaining. New on the NFL CheatSheet this week I added in the "Averages" and you can see a green or red highlight for the key stats if they are over or under the player prop line. Here we can see Lamar has averaged 84.7 rushing yards per game which is over the 58.5 line so it's highlighted in green. His LOW was 45 yards with the other two games a whopping 122 and 87. I love having the player game logs right next to the projections, prop lines and averages as it makes my research so much better!
ANDY DALTON OVER 230.5 PASSING YARDS
Revenge game against his old team and he is coming off a 319 yard passing performance against the Raiders. I feel like this should of been 255-265 but 230.5 is a slap in the face. I also love having the game logs on here so I can see his "Targets" and determine if favorite person to throw too and add them into my player props!
CHUBA HUBBARD OVER 62.5 RUSHING YARDS -OR- OVER 16.5 REC YARDS
I am excited for this game because if CAR jumps out again they could be fun to watch and if they go back to sucking then we know it was a one game wonder. Hubbard really didn't do much in W1 and W2 but we now know those are two solid defenses in the Saints and Chargers that he was facing. When he faced the Raiders and got 21 carries he exploded for 114 yards and check 5 grabs for another 55 yards on 5 targets! Matchup is middle of the road but if he gets another 18-20 carries he only needs to average a little over 3 yards per carry to hit that prop number.
Another tool we have is the "PROPS" tab on the NFL cheatsheet and it looks like this. I like to take the Last 7 game average and sort the "SPLIT" from high to low. This shows me the players that are averaging way over their player prop line and that is where I start digging. Now you won't get props like pass attempts or receptions because the difference won't be higher than someone having a massive yardage game but you get the idea. Using this PROP tab I came up with the following and posted this (screen shot below) in the group earlier in the week.
DFS STACKS
When looking at DFS stacks I quickly go to the STACKS tab on the cheatsheet and sort it by "Stack Score" and start digging through. Most of the time after I've gone through my NFL bets and NFL props I have a good idea of what teams I want to target.
You can also sort this by "Average Value" and find some interesting stacks. Now I know the game already played but prior to this week the Daniel Jones - Nabers - Robinson would of been a solid cheat stack to target. However, in a showdown slate it's not feasible but just look at what Robinson did in that game.
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