NFL Week 8 Plays & Stats from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Last week our value stack was Brissett + T.Y. Hilton and Brissett ended up as the 4th highest scoring QB at 31.64 points and T.Y. Hilton ended as the 12th WR at 19.4 points. Stafford was one of our stacks and ended as the #2 scoring QB but it was all Marvin Jones and we were on Hock! Sports Betting best bet algo plays are now up to 9-3 on the year after missing a 0.5 point cover by San Fran last week that would of made us 10-2! Let’s dive into the week and get started!
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PLAYERS TO CONSIDER FOR YOUR LINEUPS:
DOWNGRADES –OR- SITUATIONS TO BE AWARE OF:
Michael Thomas - Likely to be shadowed by Patrick Peterson.
Sterling Shepard – Likely to be shadow covered by Darius Slay.
T.Y. Hilton – Likely to be shadowed by Chris Harris Jr.
Allen Robinson – Likely to be shadowed by Casey Hayward.
Odell Beckham Jr – Likely to be shadowed by Stephon Gilmore.
WIDE RECEIVERS:
DeAndre Hopkins (8100) – Facing Oakland they are holding the 30th ranked pass defense and they are 30th vs. WR-1. Not to mention Will Fuller won’t be in the game so this is going to give Hopkins some additional targets. Game total of 51.5 is a healthy number for some points!
Ted Ginn (3700) – Why not a cheap play here? If Patrick Peterson is going to limit Michael Thomas then pivot over to Ginn and hope for a big play! Zona has the 26th ranked pass defense but that was prior to Peterson coming back from suspension.
Tyler Lockett (7000) – Atlanta looks awful right now and they support the 4th ranked rush defense but the 31st ranked pass defense and they are 29th vs. the WR-1. Lockett should have a solid floor with upside of this becomes a shootout!
Marvin Jones (5800) / Kenny Golladay (6400) – One of these guys is going to have a big day. With no K. Johnson they are likely going to look to the air more often as the backup RB isn’t a strong runner. He lost the starting job in college and now he is starting on an NFL team so temper expectations. Facing the 27th ranked pass defense and they are also 31st vs. the WR-1 and 16th vs. WR-2. They both have plus matchups as Janoris Jenkins will be with Marvin Jones most of the time and Golladay will get DeAndre Baker who is a bottom 10 CB in the NFL giving up a 74% catch rate.
RUNNING BACKS:
QUICK NOTES: Dalvin Cook is our top algo guy but he is playing on Thursday Night so we will move down the list! CMC ranks #2 just because of his massive FPPG but he is facing a tough San Fran defense that is also 3rd vs. pass catching RBs AND he is priced up to 9200!
Aaron Jones (6800) – Facing a KC defense that is rated as the 29th rushing defense in the NFL and giving up a massive amount of yards per carry they should lean on A. Jones early and often. Hopefully he doesn’t fumble and make a time share with J. Williams!
Latavius Murray (5800) – Watch the status for Alvin Kamara but with a bye the following week I can’t imagine them playing Kamara this week and risking any type of serious injury. If Murray is the lead back again he will likely be chalky facing this terrible rushing defense of Arizona that ranks 26th and 31st vs. pass catching RBs! Big game and cash game lock if AK is a no-go!
Chris Carson (7000) – Facing the 31st run defense in ATL and they are also 26th vs. pass catching RBs.
Austin Ekeler (5900) – LAC have a tough game this week vs. that Bear defense. Ekeler is on a 19.2 FPPG average over his last 3 games and 23.7 on the season. Melvin got the short stick as comes back and faces DEN, PIT and TEN and averages only 2.6, 2.3 and 2.0 yards per carry and hasn’t broke 10 fantasy points yet. Ekeler had a rough game in Week 6 vs. PIT putting up only 5.8 DK points but outside of that game he has 28.5, 23.3, 29.2, 15, 24 and 39.4 DK points. He is also being used in the passing game like crazy with 16, 4 and 8 targets in his last 3 games. TEN is the 3rd best run defense and Ekeler went 7 for 118 yards and a score for 28.5 DK points. Bears are not quite that good as they rank 16th in rushing defense but they are still solid. I expect Ekeler to get a lot of work again in the passing game.
TIGHT ENDS:
No hot take here. It’s the usual guys at top and TE this year has been rough. Hooper, Henry and Waller have been solid floor guys. If you need some upside on a lower end guy that only guy jumping out is Gerald Everett but he is still 4300 on DK and at that point I’d rather go up to Henry at 4900. If you want some CHEAP PUNTS I sort the NFL CheatSheet by Fantasy Points Per game for the Season & Last 3 games and then I get Darren Fells (3400) and 11.2 FPPG over L3, Dallas Goedert (2800) with 6 FPPG on the season and I mean that isn’t much but 2x for a punt isn’t terrible and finally Kyle Rudolph (3800) at 8.3 PPG over his last 3. Rudolph is coming off a 5/58-1 TD came for 16.8 points and well you know how back WAS is right now!
STACKS TO ATTACK THIS WEEK:
This is where I love the cheatsheet. We have great game breakdown of data showing the Vegas projected score, our ALGO projected score so we can see who we think will be playing from ahead or behind and also team ranks for offensive and defensive points per game, home and road splits, yards per game, yards allowed and how the team they are facing ranks at defending each position from the WR-1, WR-2, TE, etc.
Matthew Stafford (6100) + Marvin Jones (5800) OR Golladay (6400) – With the need to throw the ball the majority of GPP winning lineups have a stack +2 which means they have 2 players usually WR and/or TE with their QB so you can stack both here and still be in viable contention for GPPs. DET is 13th in points per game at 24.8 and NYG are giving up 388 yards per game and 26.7 points per game. Running it back with Saquon would be a solid stack if this game exploded into a massive shootout.
Russell Wilson (7200) + Tyler Lockett (7000) – Seattle may just take the Falcons to the wood shed if “Matty Ice” doesn’t play. Seattle has been fire this year with 25.9 PPG (12th) and 391.6 yards per game (5th) and they are on the road but facing ATL who is giving up 31.9 PPG on defensive (31st) and giving up 387.7 yards per game on defensive (27th). ATL is 4th in rushing defensive and 31st in passing defensive so let’s look for a big game from Wilson. The stack is a little expensive but viable! Run back option in the stack would be Julio Jones at 7700 as SEA is 19th vs. WR-1 or you can go cheaper with Calvin Ridley at only 5600 since Sanu was traded to the Pats.
Jared Goff (6800) + Kupp (7500) + Woods (6300) – Algo has the RAMS scoring a whopping 29.2 points in this game. Rams struggled to run this year so look for some air yards if Goff can get his head out of his a$$! Cincy 29th rated passing defense and 28th vs. WR-1 and 30th vs. WR-2. Rams can light up the score board if they want too!
DeShaun Watson (7100) + DeAndre Hopkins (8100) – This game had a total that opened up at 49.0 and it has already been bet up to 51.5! That means the betting public is expecting a ton of points in this game. I can’t stack Carr because I just don’t trust him. Watson has been on fire getting it done on the ground and through the air. This one is a high end expensive stack but with no Will Fuller you could run Kenny Stills (4700) in there and cut the average cost per player down. Oakland is giving up the 24th most points to QBs and they have the 30th ranked passing defense. If Oakland can put some points on the board this could be a shootout. The run back I would initially say Darren Waller but HOU is #2 vs. covering the TE and that will be chalky so if you want to be different in GPP look at Tyrell Williams, Hunter Renfroe or Zay Jones.
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