MLB Plays & Stats from CheatSheetPros!
PITCHERS TO CONSIDER:
FAVORITE PLAYS TODAY:
CARLOS CARRASCO (10,400) – I don’t mind the price tag on Carlos today and think he is going to have another monster game. I was running all over my season long leagues trying to obtain him after I saw the BABIP report. He has a BABIP over .500! That is off the charts insane! He is going to come out of that and we saw that start last game @SEA when he put up 40.75 DK points going 7.0 innings with 0 ER and 12 Ks! Now he gets to face a MIA team who is striking out 30.4% of the time to RHP and holding down a bottom 5 team batting average of .215 with a wRC+ of 71.6. YES PLEASE!!!
MATT BOYD (9100) – Tough matchup facing BOS so this is more of a GPP play for me rather than cash. BOS hasn’t been lighting the world on fire and they still hold a 21.2% strikeout rate and .243 team batting average vs. LHP and a wRC+ of 79.7 overall. Boyd has put up 21.6, 33.5, 23.3 and 19.5 DK points in his last 4 games. His stikeouts have been 10, 13, 6 and 7. His 2nd start @ NYY was the most impressive going 6.1 with 1 ER and 13 Ks. GPP play. See screen shot below Boyd has a fairly soft matchup minus J.D. and Xander.
KEVIN GAUSMAN (8400) – Love this play today! He had a rought 10.5 point outing vs. NYM with his 2nd start but 31.3 in his first start and 29.35 in his most recent start vs. a hot ARI team where he went 7.0 innings, 2 ER and 10 Ks! Boom! He comes in at #3 on our GPP Algo plays for today. He has a dream matchup vs. CIN who have a 25% strikeout rate as a team and .185 batting average vs. RHP and a horrible wRC+ of 56.3! He can push 4x value today which is great for a pitcher! Cash & GPP.
LUKE WEAVER (8100) – So I was scrolling through my season long leagues and found him on the waiver wire and was blown away by his stats. His last two starts he put up 23.2 DK points and 30.25 @ ATL going 5.0 with 0 ER and 9 Ks. Big K upside for Weaver giving us a solid floor with GPP ceiling. PIT has a lower 20.3% strikeout rate, and decent .240 team batting average and wRC+ of 87.8. So matchup is a little tougher than Gausman so I’d save for a GPP play.
HOMER BAILEY (6200) – Dirt cheap punt pricing for Bailey going on the road to face a solid TB team. Bailey has 29 and 25.1 DK points in his last two starts and those were vs. CLE and @ NYY so not too worried about TB. He can push 5x with a great start which is the definition of GPP and will give you a solid floor. He has only given up 1 ER in his last two starts and in those two starts has 13.0 innings with 12 Ks and only 3 BB. TB boasts a 25.2% strikeout rate, .267 team batting average and wRC+ of 121.3.
STACKS & PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST:
CHW vs. CASHNER – Cashner had a good start vs. a hot TB team last night out so hoping this will be lower owned and the pricing on CHW players are good. Yoan (4900) holds a .422 wOBA and 11.1 FPPG, Jose Abreu (4300) is starting to get hot with a big game last night and holds a .292 wOBA, Eloy (4000) holds a .346 wOBA and scortching hot Tim Anderson (5100) holds a .459 wOBA and 12.2 FPPG average. Cashner has a 5.28 xFIP vs. LHH and 6.38 vs. RHH. His K9 for RHH is only 2.8 this year with a 1.74 whip. He had a good game last time out but he is known to get lit up!
ARIZONA vs. TREVOR WILLIAMS – This one is confusing to me but they come up with a stack score of 161.83 on our stack sheet so I’m stacking it up. ARI has a projected run total of only 3.7 runs but they are averaging a whopping 5.3 runs per game on the year. Trevor Williams also has a 5.16 xFIP to LHH and 4.88 to RHH. I think his numbers are skewed because he has only allowed 2, 2, 3 and 0 ERs in his 4 starts. However that was facing DET, struggling WAS, CIN and @ CIN. My god that is 3 of the worst offenses. See screen shot below if you are on the link article and if you can’t see it then you are reading this on Reddit so I’ll toss a few hitters out – Peralta (4400), Jones (4300), and I love Christian Walker (4800).
ALSO CONSIDER: NYM vs. EFLIN – I like both pitchers in season long leagues but both have struggled recently. Eflin gave up an alarming 10 hits and 6 ER to a weak MIA team and then followed that up with only 2 Ks vs. a struggling COL team. NYM have hitters like Peter Alonso (5000) with a .425 wOBA, Conforto (4900) with a .432 wOBA that you can build around. NYM are projected at 4.5 runs but they average 5.4 runs per game.
Here is the pitching breakdown chart I attempted to post earlier for the pitchers today. I made some red lines (hard to draw on a computer with a mouse) of some stats to take note of:
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