MLB Plays & Stats from CheatSheetPros!
LOOK BACK AT YESTERDAY: Walker Buehler continues to dominate at home with a 52 DK point outing. Nola took care of the worthless White Sox for 35 DK points. Sanchez impressed in his first Astros start with 27.7 and had a no-no through 6 innings. Straus continues to kill me as I can’t get him right. I finally tossed in the towel and put him in a couple lineups and he gave up a shit ton of runs and finished -0.1 points. Our Chris Sale fade paid dividends as he continues to get ate up by NYY. Let’s jump in today’s main slate starting here in a couple hours and take a look!
PITCHERS TO CONSIDER:
Justin Verlander (12000) – He is the stud of studs right now coming off 45, 37 and 32 DK point starts putting up 13, 11 and 12 Ks in each of those contest. (NOTE: He did face Seattle earlier when he was in a funk and they got him for 4 ER in 5.0 innings.) SEA BVP is only .238 through 80 team Abs. Verlander has a 2.69 ERA at home and allows a .180 batting average.
Noah Syndergaard (10500) – If you want to save $1.5k come down to Noah who has put up 35, 18, 26 and 30 DK points in his last 4. He went at least 7.0 innings in all 4 starts and racked up a minimum of 8 Ks in each topping out at 11 Ks.
Yu Darvish (9000) – I feel better about Darvish today putting up 23, 13, 29 and 27 DK points in his last 4. His last two starts were on the road but his last 2 home starts were 29 and 27 DK points and that is a good for 3x value! Great BVP as MIL is only hitting .184 off him through 49 team Abs. Darvish at home is allowing a low .222 batting average with a 10.3 K9 ratio. MIL ranks 26th in L10 game power rankings, hitting only .216 as a team over the last week and scoring 2.7 runs per game.
Julio Teheran (8000) – Full disclosure I hate this guy, he always gets me. Can’t ignore the 5 straight starts with 18-22 DK points and not allowing more than 2 ER in any of those. Solid cash floor but not much upside, could push 3x but won’t get to 30. He does have a 2.26 ERA at home but his xFIP indicates it should be closer to 4.43 and holding opponent hitters to a .226 average.
Reynaldo Lopez (7200) – Coming off a rougher start putting up 14 DK points (2x value) he had 3 prior starts in a row of 25, 27 and 30 DK points. That gives you monster upside on his price tag pushing 4x value!
Brad Keller (6900) – Coming off a rough 13 point start he had 23, 22 and 32 prior to that. He also faced MIN @ MIN on June 14th and went for 21.55 DK points going 7.0 / 0 ER / 5Ks. GPP only because MIN is getting hot and needs to win!
Drew Smyly (6600) – Stats are terrible but maybe he has turned a corner? His last two starts he put up 24 and 27 DK points and only allowed 1 ER in those two. Maybe the injuries are behind him and he is getting back on track??? GPP only. He gets to face the struggling CHW who are scoring 1.8 runs per game and hitting .191 as a team over the last week. They also only rank 28th in our L10 game power rankings.
STACKS & PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST:
TORONTO – Facing Tom Eshelman today he has a low 7.1% swinging strike rate with an ERA north of 6 and allows a .298 opponent batting average. Vlad is the hottest hitter on the team right now averaging 18 FPPG over the last week. I’d stack Vlad, skim Guirrel at 5,000 and then take 3-4 of the next 5 hitters and you can get a low 4k average. TOR is scoring 7.0 runs per game over the last week, hitting .292 as a team and ranks 5th in our L10 game power rankings.
CLEVELAND – Facing Barria today he has been terrible on the road. Barria has a solid 2.38 ERA at home but on the road it is north of 10! Barria is allowing a .356 opponent batting average on the road. Enough said.
HOUSTON – I’m going to ride this stack the rest of the year as they continue to make me money. I stacked them with 8 other teams yesterday for 25-30 DK lines and they all did well. No line on this game yet so no projected total but they are red hot right now, #1 in our L10 game power rankings and hitting .307 as a team over the last week.
SAN FRANCISCO – Kyle Freeland continues to be someone we are going to pick on. He can’t get an out to save his life. At home he has a 10.31 ERA through 36.2 innings, allowing a .437 wOBA, horrible 4.9 K9 ratio, 1.88 whip and allowing a .346 opponent batting average. Colorado also has the 28th ranked bullpen since July 1st. (NOTE: Colorado is always chalky in Colo and they are priced up to almost 5k average per hitter for the top 5 but you can get Giants at 3800-4240 average per hitting, HUGE discount!) Also notable SFG have the #1 bullpen since July 1st so that helps me fade Colorado hitters today.
STACK CHART PREVIEW: This is a new tab we are testing on the MLB CheatSheets and you can sort it by GRADE and find the top stacks up top and the best pitcher matchups at the bottom. Notice there are a few games with no Vegas line yet. CLE / TOR / SFG all come up to the top. You can see Smyles is facing CHW who are only scoring the 1.83 runs per game over the last week and hitting .191. This sheet quickly shows you how a team has performed the last 7 days, last 10 games, facing pitcher, pitcher split stats, BVP data and what the bullpen is like when the SP comes out of the game. A couple nights ago when I was testing this it gave us PIT as the #2 stack and they were not in the top half of team projected runs and scored 8 for a good sneaky stack. I will continue to monitor and report back!
RECENT DATA STAT SHEET: This shows us some of the hottest hitters over the last 7 days with their current pricing. Marte, Vladimir, Odor, Altuve and Reynolds have been consistent producers and could be used as great one-off hitters with your stacks!
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