MLB Plays & Stats from CheatSheetPros!
RECAP from yesterday: We picked Lynn as the highest GPP upside of the expensive pitchers and he ended up being the highest scoring pitcher on the slate at 27.9 DK points. We had Woji as a value play and he ended up at 3.6x value and was the 3rd highest scoring pitcher on the slate at 25.35 (only ½ point from being the #2 highest scoring pitcher). We put Plesac down as a solid cash value at 3x and he did just that – put up 3.1x value. Jose Urquidy was almost a must play after his last start and min priced salary and he popped off for 4x value.
PITCHERS TO CONSIDER: (Bottom priced and working up)
Glenn Sparkman (6200) – If you have followed along this year it seems Sparkman is the Chen from last year with monster home splits. Today he faces a tough CLE team but at least he is at home and is dirt cheap! Sparkman’s road starts have been 0, 5, -13 and 3 DK points and his home starts have been 42, 20, 10, 12. He has faced CLE twice both @ CLE and gave up 4 ER in 5.2 and then prior to that gave up 5 ER in 5.2. I’m sure he is looking for a rebound against a division opponent. Here is how his numbers compare home vs. road. ERA 8.73 vs. 1.76, wOBA .441 vs. .256, whip 1.88 vs. 1.02 and batting average allowed .347 vs. .224. Let’s take a shot here for GPPs with Sparky at home!
Cal Quantrill (6600) – To be honest he wasn’t even on my radar today and then I saw some solid recent starts and a low price tag. He has a solid 12.4% swinging strike rate, sub 3.80 ERA and allows a .242 batting average. He is coming off facing @CHC and ATL and put up 28 and 17 DK points. Solid for his price tag!
Steven Matz (6900) – Solid matchup for Matz facing a struggle PIR team hitting .256 and scoring 4.0 runs per game over the L7 days. PIT also ranks a lowly 23rd in our L10 game power rankings. I feel better about Matz at home tonight as his ERA on the road is 6.40 but at home it drops down to 2.54, wOBA goes from .382 down to .296 and his batting average allowed goes from .300 down to .248. He is coming off a 17.3 DK point start @ SF going 6.0 / 2 ER and 6Ks. Last year the second half he was one of the best SPs in the league, let’s home he can get past the recent struggles and round into form!
Gerrit Cole (12000) – He is your stud of studs today and highest priced pitcher for good reason. His last 5 starts have been 38, 35, 27, 35 and 34 DK points. His strikeouts in those last 5 have also been redonkulous (like my new word?) 11, 11, 13, 9 and 10! Solid floor for cash games and 3x ceiling for GPP. STL is a nice 9-1 their L10 games but they are only hitting .200 off Cole through 80 team Abs. Cole has an 18.2% swinging strike rate with a 3.03 ERA and 2.56 xFIP. He is allowing a .204 batting average to opponent hitters.
OTHER PITCHING QUICK NOTES:
Clevinger – He has also been solid with two 30+ DK point starts in his last 5 but those were facing TOR, DET and KC (weak teams). He gets KC tonight and faced them on July 3rd and put up 33.1 DK points going 6.0 / 0 ER and 9 Ks. Also a high end option but at 11,400 I prefer to go up to Cole at 12k.
Declafani – Coming off a 31 DK point start going 6.0 / 1 ER and 11 Ks and NO WALKS. Wow! Priced 2800 below Cole so worth a GPP flier. His HOEM ERA is 3.56 with a nice 10.1 K9 ratio and allowing a .254 batting average. Pretty decent.
Lester – He almost made the cut but I think he has more of a 2x average game rather than a monster ceiling game. His last 4 starts are between 10-20 DK points. Nothing big just consistent cash floor. The thing that pulled him off my list was MIL is hitting .333 against him through 90 team Abs.
STACKS & PITCHERS TO TARGET AGAINST:
Sneaky Stack: NYM vs. Trevor Williams – Williams is coming off a solid start vs. STL going 5.0 with 1 ER and 7 Ks. However, prior to that start he has given up 8, 5, 4 and 7 ERs so don’t get too excited. NYM are only projected around 4.7 runs so they will be less chalky on the larger slate tonight. They are 6-4 in their L10 games and rank 5th in the L10 game power rankings but only hitting around .251. Williams struggles vs. LHH as he has an ERA of 6.19 with a 1.72 whip and allowing a .341 average to them. NYM are projected to roll out at least 4 of their first 6 hitters as LHH. If you use Cano at 5100 a 5 man stack will cost you 4400 per hitter on the top end and if you fade Cano you can get that down to 3880-4120 average per player.
MINNY (Projected at 6.1 runs) – Chalky, obvious vs. Nova and 27th ranked bullpen. See Cheatsheet for specific hitters.
Cheap Stack: ROYALS vs. Clevinger – I’m leaving Cole > Clev tonight because the Royals are a pesky team. They have a wRC+ of 118.4 at home vs. only 74.1 on the road. They are also still 6-4 in their L10 games and rank 12th in the L10 game power rankings despite scoring 3.2 runs per game and hitting .204 as a team. They are hitting .264 vs. Clevinger through 72 team Abs. Clevinger also has a much harder time on the road. His home ERA is 0.78 and road ERA is 6.98, wOBA is .206 vs. .338 and batting average allowed is .152 vs. .246. Royals aren’t lighting the world on fire but if you want STUD pitching they are a GPP stack you can use. You can stack 5 solid hitters sub 4,000 average per player which is almost the MIN.
TEXAS vs. Homer Bailey – Team isn’t playing well going 3-7 in their last 10 games and that is on a 2 game win streak. Homer Bailey has a 5.42 ERA and allowing a 1.48 whip and .272 batting average. He is coming off a -16.7 point start @ HOU giving up 9 ER in 2.0 innings. TEX hitters have a solid BVP of .286 through 70 team Abs off Bailey. Take a shot!
OAK vs. Sampson – Another team that is struggling right now hitting only .183 over the last 7 days and scoring 3.3 runs per game. But Sampson is awful! He has a 5.19 ERA overall but 7.97 ERA on the road! His wOBA is a whopping .368 overall and .427 on the road and his batting average allowed is a .302 overall and .337 on the road. Typically I would see these numbers and think he doesn’t have enough innings but he’s tossed 100+ innings this year so stack the shit out of Oakland and hope they can tee off! Oakland is hitting .458 off him but it’s only 24 team Abs and after he comes out Oakland gets to face the 21st ranked bullpen.
STATS & TRENDS FOR TODAY:
Win Streak Teams:
Cardinals 9-1 in their L10 games.
Giants 8-2 in their L10 games.
Cleveland 8-2 in their L10 games.
Losing Stream Teams:
Tigers 1-9 in their L10 games.
Pirates 2-8 in their L10 games.
Teams with the BEST OVER record (Great for Betting & Stacking!):
Seattle 66-37
Boston 61-41
Pirates 58-41
NYY 56-43
NYM 52-41
Teams with the HIGHEST & LOWEST Last 7 Day Batting Average:
NYY .326
Boston .313
Minny .300
Cincy .288
Miami .181
Toronto .183
Oakland .183
White Sox .196
TEAM WITH THE BIGGEST GRADE DIFFERENCE:
MINNY +17
OAKLAND +13
CLEVELAND +12
HOUSTON +11
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