Let's start with MLB action. The first thing I do is go to the "Prize Picks" tab on the MLB cheatsheet and look at the last 7 game hit rates and game logs. Here are some of my thoughts:
Logan Allen - OVER 4.0 Strikeouts
In his lone start this year he put up 8 strikeouts and although BOS has a lower strikeout rate of (20.5%) - for him to end his start with 3 for a loss seems like a low probability. I would check the starting lineup for BOS as Sundays the stars usually get some rest and you might get some higher strikeout hitters in the lineup!
Steven Kwan - OVER 7.5 Fantasy Score
He is riding a 5 game OVER streak and 6-1 over the last 7 games. Chris Sale has been up and down so definitely one that I would dig into.
Joey Gallo - OVER 0.5 Total Bases
Gallo is 3 for 6 (.500) off Singer and even has a HR against him. He has a 5-1 OVER streak and Singer hasn't exactly been lights out.
Sonny Gray - OVER 6.0 strikeouts *** Play of the day! ***
This is one of my FAVORITE plays on the board and let me tell you why. The line is 6.0 meaning he has to end with 5 for a loss. He has 8, 7, 5 and 13 over the last 3 starts giving him a floor of 5. Now you can see the opponent strikeout rate is 25.5% and ranks 27th in the MLB meaning they STRIKEOUT A BUNCH! This is a key stat to pull off the Prize Picks cheatsheet! This will move to 6.5 at some point today.
FOUR PRO TIPS FOR USING THE MLB CHEATSHEET!
PRO TIP #1 - Go to the "HITTERS TAB" and sort by AVG fantasy poins over last 7 games and find the "Hot Hitters". This is a great place to find guys for your same game parlays and the HITS+RUN+RBI props!
PROP TIP #2 - On the same "Hitters Tab" I also sort by HITS from high to low and look at good BVP spots. Some hitters just have an edge against certain pitchers and prior success leads to future success.
PRO TIP #3 - Look at the "X-Factor" tab! You can use this tab no matter what you are doing! Here you can see if the lineup is projected vs. confirmed, bullpen rankings, the pitchers last two starts, team runs scored per game over the last 7 games, hitter strikeout rates or the season vs. current pitcher handedness and fantasy production over the last 7 games that player has played. You might not be playing fantasy but if you are looking at PROPS or PRIZE PICKS the player putting up the fantasy projection is going to be the player also going OVER on most of his props!
PRO TIP #4 - When you highlight some players you want to dig into then go to the "Main Tab" and look at the breakdown of their game logs as shown below. "Prize Picks" has a fun HITS+RUNS+RBI prop line so I added a custom column for it!
NBA PRIZE PICKS:
Looking at the NBA cheatsheet I want to see the last 10 game hit rates and these are filtered out for ONLY Playoff game logs so we can get rid of the last few regular season games where players didn't play full game.
What jumps out at you? You should look at this screen shot and learn how to break it down quickly. Fox Fantasy Score has an 83% hit rate going 5-1 OVER so is that a good play? Maybe. But with a "Prize Pick" line of 49.0 and games of 55.8, 48.9, 56.3, 52.3, 56.5 and 52.7 when he is going over he is barely getting over in most games so I think this is a fair line and there is little edge to be had.
Now scroll down to Jimmy Butler and you see his props are clustered together and although they only have a 60% hit rate when he goes OVER he is smashing the line. For example, his Points + Rebounds line is 36.5 and he has 50, 65 which are WAY OVER that number and the two sliding under and a 40 spot in his first playoff game. I look for players that have the ability to get WAY OVER as opposed to squeaking over by a few .
Make sure to look at the player logs. We pull in the playoff game logs and also the Prize Pick lines and hit rates as you can see above. What jumps out is Fox STEALS as he has 3, 2, 1, 2, 4 and 3 so I'd be curious to see the DK Same Game Parlay Steals Prop for Fox at 1+, 2+ and 3+ steals. I hit this for a unit last night at plus money and Booker steals was the same as Fox and got a boost from -125 to +125 by just adding Booker 1+ steals.
HOT PLAYERS - I look for players who have 3-5 games just crushing a certain stat. Here we seen LOONEY with 13, 22, 14 and 20 REBOUNDS! My god man that dude is fire on the boards! I'm not saying this is a lock or a play but I'd look at it for sure!
MALIK MONK PROPS - Love the OVERS! he has been fire these last 3 games. If playing on Prize Picks I don't mind the 17.5 as he has 28 and 21 in just the last 2 games but in a same game parlay on DK you can get a lower number that is a bit safer. His PRA number of 25.5 looks good with 39, 29 and 26 over the last 3 games.
Here is a simple "Prize Pick" card I'd put together for tonight. Here you can see we alreayd had Logan Allen go from 4.0 to 4.5 that's why it's key to get on the cheatsheet early if you are playing on Prize Picks and take advantage of some hot spots!
GOOD LUCK,
HAZE
FYI - My goal is not just to give you plays, I want to teach you how I breakdown games and use the cheatsheet to dig up plays! I don't have time to give out daily cards and plays all summer and that is why I focus on the cheatsheets and provided you the information all in one spot at a very cheap price <$0.50 a day. Handicappers that provide plays an charge upwards of $50-$100 a month and sometimes that amount just weekly. Learn the process, learn the sheets and save the money!
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