Genesis Open Recap
JB Holmes outlasted Justin Thomas to win the Genesis Open this past weekend. Weather played a factor throughout the tournament, especially on Sunday afternoon as the leaders struggled down the stretch. Thomas entered the final round with a 4 shot lead and was the heavy favorite to win the tournament. However, he had trouble on the greens throughout the round, highlighted by a 3 putt from about 3 feet on number 13. He followed that with a bogey on 14 and was never able to get the lead back. Holmes entered the tournament at odds of 150 to 1 and hadn’t won since 2015.
WGC Mexico Preview
This week the best players in the world will be teeing it up in Mexico. The WGC Mexico Championship will be played at Club de Golf Chapultepec in Mexico City. There will be 72 players teeing it up, and, as is expected with a WGC tournament, the field is extremely strong. Only 2 of the top 25 players in the world will not be playing in Mexico this week. There is a no cut event. Details of the course are shown below, with the difficulty ranking based on the 2018 tour season.
· Par 71
· 7,345 yards
· Poa annua greens
· 31st most difficult (out of 51)
You’ll notice that the course length is very similar to last week. However, given the high altitude in Mexico City, this course will play much shorter. It’s interesting to note that while the par 3s and 5s are pretty lengthy on the scorecard, 6 of the par 4s measure 406 yards or less. This means we’ll see a lot of wedges being hit into the greens this week.
This tournament has been played in Mexico for only the past two years, having been played in Miami the 10 years prior to that. Thus, for course history, I recommend focusing on the last two years. Justin Thomas holed out for eagle on 18 in last year’s event to force a playoff with Phil Mickelson at 16 under. Mickelson ultimately won the playoff. Dustin Johnson won the event two years ago at 14 under, defeating Tommy Fleetwood by a shot. Having good form coming into the event has been important the last two years, as the leaderboard both years was littered with guys who had played well in prior weeks.
Strong iron and wedge play is likely to be very important this week. Off the tee play may be a little bit mitigated this week due to the nature and distance of the course. The fairways are a little narrower than the typical PGA tour event and a lot of guys will club down off the tee. The greens are poa annua again this week, so that is another angle to consider.
After a couple rough weeks of weather on tour, the conditions are expected to be warmer and calmer this week in Mexico City. Temperatures will be in the 60s and 70s and winds likely will not surpass 10 miles per hour. However, it’s a good idea to keep an eye on things leading up to Thursday just in case anything changes.
Golfers to consider for your DFS lineups this week!
Matt Kuchar - $7,700 DK
Is this a joke? He is priced down in the value range this week and he has been crushing it. He comes in as our #2 GPP algo play on the PGA Premium CheatSheet and he should easily give you back 8x as a floor and as high as 10x returns. He is averaging 96.3 DK points per start over 5 starts since January 1st. He has 3 top 10's and 2 wins. He is coming off 58th and 20th place finishes here in 2017 and 2018. He is also coming off 28th, 22nd, 4th and 1st in his last 4 starts. He is $2,100 more on Fanduel with a price point of $9,800 so he is almost a lock on DK.
Gary Woodland - $7,900 DK
He comes in as our #3 GPP algo play on our Cheatsheet this week. Gary is averaging 89.5 DK points over 4 starts since January 1. He has finished 58th and 38th here the last two years and coming off a 7th and 9th place finish in his last two starts. He fits the course well as the P5's will make up for 36% of the total scoring and he ranks 7th and 2nd in those holes. He also has 7 top 10s. Gary is priced at $10,100 on Fanduel so his price on DK is almost a joke.
Punt Golfers: (If we keep the same mindset that we use on the NBA Premium CheatSheet for our punts here are two golfers that pop in our model.)
Chez Reavie - $7,100 DK
89.5 DK points per game over 5 starts and that includes the terrible outing last week. He could easily smash 10x value this week. He is also ranks 18th in our custom model specific for this course. In his last 5 starts he has two top 5 finishes. He only ranks 27th and 52nd in the P5's but he is strong in all the P4 rankings with a 25th, 9th, 30th and 15th for the course.
Emillo Grillo - $6,900 DK
He is the lowest priced golfer in the top portion of our algo model. He has 3 starts since January 1st and is averaging 76.2 DK points per start. On the P5s he ranks 19th and 29th, he is so-so at best on the P4s but where he really pops is Proximity. His proximity numbers are 11th overall and then in each category he is 10th, 24th, 16th, 15th and 9th. Proximity approach will be a factor here.
*HOT GOLFERS TO START THE YEAR: (Golfers who are providing the highest value to salary ratio since January 2019 and playing at least 3 tournaments.)
1. Jon Rahm - $10,700 – 100.7 DK points per game over 5 starts.
2. Marc Leishman - $8,700 – 99.9 DK points per game over 4 starts.
3. Rory M. - $11,100 – 98.7 DK points per game over 3 starts.
4. Xander Schauffele - $9,100 – 96.8 DK points per game over 4 starts.
5. Matt Kuchar - $7,700 – 96.3 DK points per game over 5 starts.
*Highest VALUE to Salary GOLFERS:
1. Russell Knox – 12.1x value through 5 starts.
2. Matt Kuchar – 11.1x value through 5 starts.
3. Marc Leishman – 11.0x value through 4 starts.
4. Xander Schauffele – 10.7x value through 4 starts.
5. Chez Reavie – 10.5 value through 5 starts.
*PAR 5 MONSTERS: (Golfers who are ranked high in the last 36 rounds in the P5’s where there will be a lot of scoring on this course. Also that are projected at least 7x value.)
1. Xander Schauffele – 13th & 1st
2. Gary Woodland – 7th & 2nd
3. Tony Finau – 17th & 5th
4. Ricky Fowler – 15th & 9th
5. Brooks Koepka – 1st & 12th
*Largest pricing differences between Draftkings & Fanduel:
1. Emiliano Grillo - $6,900 DK vs. $9,400 FD
2. Branden Grace - $6,800 DK vs. $9,300 FD
3. Alexander Noren - $7,100 DK vs. $9,600 FD
4. Andrew Putnam - $6,600 DK vs. $9,000 FD
5. Henrick Stenson - $7,200 DK vs. $9,600 FD
Thank you for reading and good luck!
Haze
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