PGA Stats & Plays from CheatSheetPros!
QUICK NEWS AND NOTES:
Congrats to Michael for taking a $15,000 win in the Milly Maker last week. I think all the members in our chat group was sweating the final round because we knew he was going to make a run. Some of the guys we had last week as solid low owned punts that came out on top were: Wes Bryan, Troy Merritt and Ryan Armour. I focus more on the lower priced guys since almost everyone is covering the studs. If you read an article of someone picking out the same players as everyone else then those guys are chalky and play with caution. I typically avoid them unless I have solid stats to back them up.
COURSE:
MUIRFIELD GOLF CLUB – 7,456 YARDS – BENTGRASS GREENS
The Workday Charity Open is a new tournament this year but the Memorial is played here every year so those are some of the finishes that we are going to focus on. The difference is that they said they will slow down the greens and grow up the rough.
STATS TO FOCUS ON:
This is a very long course at 7,456 yards so we are going to look for some bombers but the main catch is to find bombers that are accurate drivers. The strokes gained T2G and approach continue to be the most accurate stats for success on the course. There are 6 holes that are Par 4: 450-500 yards so that will be another place to look for scoring potential. The highest percentage of birdies will come on the Par 5’s and they are 33%, 39%, 42.9% and 40.8%. Two of the par 4s make up 24.2% and 20% and then it drops off from there.
PAST WINNER & NOTES:
2019 Memorial Tournament Winner: Patrick Cantlay - 19
Some of the notable finishes from 2019 were Kevin Streelman 4th, Leishman 5th, Michael Thompson T14, Troy Merritt T17, An T17, Ryan Armour T22, Sabbatini T27, Joel Niemann T27 and Brian Stuard T33. Most of the big names are also in the top 15 but wanted to focus on some other guys that have been on the recent leaderboards and/or guys we are going to focus on in the article.
GOLFERS OVER 10,000 ON DK: “HIGH END STUDS”
PATRICK CANTLAY (10,600 DK / 11,700 FD) – Cantlay has crushed this course in the past and has made 15 cuts in a row. In 2019 he won with a score of -19, in 2018 he finished 4th and in 2017 he finished T35. Statwise he is also a monster with 6th in DK points, 7th in T2G, 13th in approach, 16th in driving distance while maintaining a 19th in GIR:G and 12th in proximity. He has only played 1 tournament since the Covid layoff and that was the Travelers where he put up 103.5 DK points and didn’t show any signs of rust. He is playing at +1.91 strokes better per round than the average golfer. Stud for cash or GPP.
XANDER SCHAUFFELE (10,200 DK / 11,200 FD) – Xander is more of a GPP play for me as he is projected at the lowest ownership of all the guys over $10k on DK. He has made 7 straight cuts and 10 of 11 on the season with an average finish of 23rd. He is also solid Statwise (as most guys over 10k are) with 14th in DK points, 6th in T2G, 14th in approach, 12th in driving distance and 3rd in GIR:G. Since returning he has put up 87.5, 79 and 106 DK points in the last 3 for an average of 90.8 DK points per contents for just shy of 9x value his current salary. Xander is also a Par 4: 450-500 scoring monster in recent rounds ranking top 10 over his last 12 rounds. He finished T14 here last year and has a missed cut in 2018.
OTHERS GOLFERS IN THE RANGE: Brooks Koepka is someone else that I like and he as tourney winning upside coming off a solid 116 DK points at the RBC. He is projected to be the highest owned of the upper tier so since he will be popular I didn’t break him down. Jon Rahm was going to be my GPP play but Xander is projected at a lower ownership. I’ll check other places for ownership when it releases on Wednesday morning as those seem to be a more accurate measure. Jon Rahm has only put up 76, 90.5 and 25.5 DK points in his last 3 since the layoff. I’d like to see better results before I spend almost 11k on DK in a cash game.
GOLFERS 9,000 – 9,999: “UPPER MID-RANGE”
VIKTOR HOVLAND (9,500 DK / 10,900 FD) – With only a handful of golfers in this range Hovland is easily my favorite play to use for GPP or cash. He has 5 straight cuts and 10 of 13 on the year. He has been tearing up the DK points since returning with 95, 100, 102 and 70.5 in his last 4. We even get a price discount from where he was last week. Hovland is excellent in T2G ranking 4th, 1st in approach and his proximity numbers are great across the board. His down points are 56th in driving distance and 118th in sand saves. However, with his recent performance I’m going to ride him as my favorite cash play in this range.
COLLIN MORIKAWA (9,200 DK / 10,600 FD) – Give the kid a break he missed one cut! Everyone has a bad couple of rounds and he started off his career with 22 or 23 straight cuts made. He is 13 of 14 on the year for 93%. In his last 3 since the return he has a high of 102 DK points, then a 74 DK point outing and a MC last week. He isn’t a bomber since he ranks 82nd in driving distance but he is extremely accurate. He is 3rd in T2G, 2nd in approach and 4th in GIR:G and 8th in total proximity. He is also 2nd in Par 4: 450-500 scoring over his last 12 rounds. Look for him to get back on track with another streak of cuts and a solid 8-9x value of his DK salary.
GOLFERS 8,000 – 8,999: “THE SWEET SPOT”
JORDAN SPIETH (8,600 DK / 10,200 FD) – I am not a fan of Spieth myself but I am here to give you some GPP and cash game plays. If you are only playing a large field GPP then you have to look at Jordan Spieth who has 6 straight cuts and 10 of 11 on the year. He has also put up 79.5, 72 and 93.5 DK points which is solid based on his 8.6k price tag on DK. I don’t know if I can bring myself to personally put him in my own lineups but he is someone to consider for GPPs with the early ownership projections. He loves this course too! He finished T7 in 2019, didn’t play in 2018, finished T13 in 2017 and T57 in 2016. He has history here and is performing well.
ADAM HADWIN (8,200 DK / 9,900 FD) – Now for someone that I like and had in our article this week. Since the return he has put up 113, 88 and 75.5 DK points and he is gradually getting better each week. Pretty solid numbers with 26th in T2G, 29th in approach, 7th in putting and 18th in proximity. He finished T52 here in 2019, cut in 2018 and T11 in 2016. He has made 10 of 11 cuts on the year and has the highest X value return on his current salary since the return (in this range).
JOAQUIN NIEMAN (8,400 DK / 10,000 FD) – Another guy that I have owned a lot this year is Nieman. He is 14th in T2G, 15th in approach, 20th in driving distance, 22nd in GIR:G and 30th in proximity. He has put up 61.5, 118.5 and 74 DK points since returning for an average 10.1x return value across those events. He also finished 27th here last year and then 6th in 2018. Anyone that is putting up consistent points and has played this course with success is someone we can use for GPP or cash. He is projected to be the 3rd highest owned in the category behind Matt Kuchar and Gary Woodland.
MATTHEW FITZPATRICK (8,000 DK / 9,700 FD) – Here is your GPP play. I am assuming most people are going to go to Matthew Wolff (only 8,100) after watching him compete for the win last week with Bryson DeChambeau. Fitzpatrick is playing +1.33 strokes better than the average golfer right now. He isn’t a great stat monster that we are looking for but he put up 103 and 73.5 DK points before his missed cut at the Travelers. Wolff has been terrible outside of last week. With the amount of people that are going to play him and his recent performance I will look to pivot to Fitzpatrick.
GOLFERS 7,000 – 7,999: “The LINEUP FILLERS!”
JOEL DAHMEN (7,700 DK / 9,300 FD) – The guy is on fire right now playing at +1.98 strokes better than the average golfer. He has 9 straight made cuts and has made 14 of 16 on the year. He ranks 13th in DK points, 5th in T2G, 10th in approach and 9th in total proximity. Since the return he has put up 95.5, 94.5 and 90.5 DK points for an average of 11.3x value his current DK salary. He is underpriced. He made the cut here last year but only finished T68 – but he is playing much better golf now.
CAMERON CHAMP (7,700 DK / 9,600 FD) – This is another solid GPP play. Playing at +1.11 strokes better than the average golfer. He has also made 10 of 13 cuts on the season. He ranks 7th in DK points, 9th in T2G, 1st in driving distance and 10th in GIR:G. He is outside the top 100 in his approach game but still manages 32nd in par 4 scoring and 20th in par 5 scoring. He hasn’t played since the Charles Schwab but he put up 86.5 DK points. He played here last year and was cut so GPP only for me.
IAN POULTER (7,500 DK / 9,000 FD) – Why not a value play to fill in the lineup to make the cut and rack up some points? Poulter has made 11 straight cuts and 8 of 8 on the year with an average finish of 34th. He is also playing +1.19 strokes better than the average golfer. I don’t think he is going to win or even be a top 10 player here but he can grind out a cut for you. He is 10th in DK points, 5th in putting, 19th in par 4 scoring and 10th in par 5 scoring. He has put up 69.5, 106 and 74.5 DK points in his last 3. Heck if he can give you 70 Dk points that is 9x value his current salary and that is quite possible. 100+ would give you a monster return.
HAROLD VARNER (7,500 DK / 9,200 FD) – He gave everyone a scare last week after that horrible first round. He has put up 78.5, 87 and 83 DK points with a MC since the return to golf. He is playing +1.08 strokes better than average. He is 8th in T2G, 6th in approach, 14th in proximity and 5th in GIR:G. He was cut here in 2019, didn’t play in 2018 and then in 2017 he finished T19 and shot -4. If he can get his putter going he could make a top 25 run. Projected at sub 9% ownership he can easily be added to your GPP player pool.
RYAN ARMOUR (7,400 DK / 9,000 FD) – Coming off 110.5 and 110 DK point outings he is red hot right now and has made 3 cuts in a row. His stats aren’t going to be the best on the cheatsheet because before the covid break he was a shitbag and put up 12 – 25 – 55 and 21.5 DK points and then returned to 63 – 110 and 110.5. His last 3 give him an average return of 12.8x value his current salary. He was cut here in 2017 and came back with a T23 in 2018 and T22 in 2019.
MARK HUBBARD (7,400 DK / 8,500 FD) – The thing I like about Mark Hubbard if you head the above on Ryan Armour is that he was actually good before the covid break. Hubbs had a run of 75, 69 and 85.5 Dk points with one MC and then after the break he came roaring out of the gate with 95.5 DK points last week, 73 the prior then 85 and 60. Priced very low for someone that has 90+ point upside. He is not a stat monster but he is getting it done and has made 4 straight cuts! No course history so GPP only for me.
SCOTT STALLINGS (7,300 DK / 8,700 FD) – Since returning he has 79, 104 and 72.5 DK points and all of those are around a 10x return value which is something we are looking for in a GPP. He is playing a +0.70 strokes better than the average golfer, 4 straight cuts made and 11 of 15 on the year. He finished T48 here last year in his only appearance.
BRIAN STUARD (7,100 DK / 8,700 FD) – He has a cut streak of 4 with making 15 of 19 o the season. He has put up a solid 90, 85 and 67.5 DK points in his last 3. He isn’t a stat monster that is going to blow you away with ranks but he has been racking up the points since the covid return. No history on this course that I can see from 2017-2019 so GPP only.
BRENDAN STEELE (7,100 DK / 8,600 FD) – Playing at +0.64 strokes better than average he ranks 20th in DK points, 42nd in T2G, 30th in approach, 37th in driving distance and 26th in GIR:G. He is also 3rd in total proximity and has solid proximity numbers across the board. He missed the cut at the Schwab and then took a week off to come back and rack up 111.5 DK points at the Travelers and then took another week off. When I was scrolling through course history (and it is difficult this week because this tourney is new but played on the same course as the Memorial) I kept seeing his name come up on the leaderboard. He finished T41, T57 and T20 in 2019, 2017 and 2016 and did not play in 2018. Decent course history and making a cut and pushing 100 DK points isn’t out of the question.
TROY MERRITT (7,000 DK / 8,400 FD) – These guys that are not stat monsters because they just got hot in the last 2-3 tournaments are my favorite to play for GPPs because they are usually on the lower ownership because most stat people are pulling 50 rounds of data and they sink to the bottom. Merritt for example over his last 36 is 143rd in T2G, 130th in approach but 10th in putting. However, he came back from the covid break with 66 DK points, then 75 DK points and then 102 DK points last week. He does carry risk but he also has the GPP upside we are looking for. Last week he was still -0.89 on the approach but finished +0.45 T2G and +1.33 putting. For a T8 last week at -15 those are kind of weak stats. He was -3.57 on approach in his final round and -2.51 in T2G so let’s just hope he was trying to go pin hunting and chase down the leaders and now falling off a cliff. GPP only. He was cut here in 2016, didn’t play in 2017 and 2018 that I can find and then in 2019 he had a solid showing with a T17.
GOLFERS UNDER 7,000: “DARTS – JUST NEED THEM TO MAKE THE CUT!”
MICHAEL THOMPSON (6,900 DK / 8,200 FD) – This guy made a bunch of my lineups last week the day before the start of the tournament. I wish I had time on Monday to dig into all the guys but I do my best to get to “most” of them. Cut streak is 4 and he is 7 of 14 for the season. Another guy who has horrible stats but has been hot as of late. I don’t dig into the 122nd in T2G or the 126th in approach because we are going to focus on his recent activity. He had 69.5 DK points last week, 76 the week prior and then 100. So 3 straight tournaments over 10x value his current salary. He finished T14 here last year.
SAM BURNS (6,900 DK / 8,100 FD) – So I did not have him in my article last week and one of our members messaged me to talk shop and told me Sam Burns was the cut he was going to play in the $3,150 entry on DK. If it was good enough for him I took some shares of him. Now we are talking about Sammy Burns baby! He put up a solid 81 DK points last week and 91 the week prior and still priced sub 7k? He made the cut here in 2018 and then had a withdraw here last year. He is playing better golf now so we are going to give him another shot in our GPP player pool. He does rank 7th in driving distance, 46th in par 4 scoring and 37th in par 5 scoring.
J.B. HOLMES (6,800 DK / 8,300 FD) – Now there is some risk here as he has not played in a tournament since March. However, he is another person who kept popping up on the leaderboard when looking at past results. He is a bomber and ranks 8th in driving distance and 40th in par 5 scoring. That is where the good stats stop for him. He did have a good streak before this whole covid bullshit started. On January 23rd he put up 89 DK points, then followed that up with a 102 point outing and then 122 so he has massive upside. He was cut here in 2019 and that was only because of his -2.31 SG: putting, he was positive across the board in the other categories. In 2018 he was +1.60 SG: putting and made the cut to finish T13 and shot -10 on the week. He was cut again in 2017 and shot +10 and in 2016 he finished T4 and shot -13. A GPP play with upside but not for cash games due to the long layoff and up and down course history.
RICHY WERENSKI (6,800 DK / 8,000 FD) – This guy is 26th in DK points, 16th in putting and 1st in par 3 scoring. He has made 7 of 11 cuts and 4 in a row. He put up 93.5 DK points last week, 76 the week prior and then had a string of 55-70 point outings for solid grind out value returns. No course history here.
SEUNG-YUL NOH (6,800 DK / 7,800 FD) – Who the heck is Seung-Yul Noh? That is what was going through my head when he came up in my algo grades. He is 10th in approach, 22nd in sand saves, 37th in proximity 150-175 yards and 67th in T2G. He was a noboby before the covid break and then he showed up at the Travelers putting up 91.5 DK points and then followed it up with 81.5 last week. His strength is around the green and sand saves. Sand saves is a category that a lot of the top 10 golfers here were positive in the last couple of years. Last week he shot -8 for a T57 and he was -0.54 SG: putting. He was positive in approach and T2G.
HENRIK NORLANDER (6,500 DK / 8,000 FD) – This guy has mid-range stats but does pop out in par 5 scoring at 9th place. He popped out on our radar because of his performances the last two weeks. He put up 71.5 DK points at the Travelers and then 89 last week. He finished T12 last week and shot -14 and that was even -0.61 SG: putting. His approach was stellar at +2.07 and T2G +2.14. He was 2nd in T2G behind Viktor Hovland and then Hideki was #3 and Bryson #4 and if you are curious Ryan Armour slid in there at #5.
CLOSING NOTES:
I wish I had more time to breakdown these guys! Grillo has had success here with a T9 and T23 the last two years, Leishman is another with a 5th in 2019 and a T15 in 2017. An is another guy that kept coming up when I was scrolling through looking for names and he has a T17, T2 and T25 here. Stroud was another punt play that I was looking into but didn’t get time. Dufner also finished T7 here last year and I didn’t get time to dig into him. I did run a quick custom model on FantasyNational.com and focused on strokes gained putting on bentgrass last 12 rounds and then a longer look at T2G and approach and then par 4: 450-500 scoring and it came back with Corey Conners as the #1 guy and then Patrick Cantlay at #2!
Thanks for reading,
Haze
Comentarios